Guest Post by Joe Hoft
Update to post on April 16th –
Donald Trump, after New York, increased his lead against Ted Cruz. Trump also continues to top Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton in the elections to date.
Primary and caucus results to date (as of Thursday April 21st) show that Trump continues to outshine all candidates.
Charts by Joe Hoft (data from RealClearPolitics)
Trump is leading both Republicans and Democrats this year.
** More primary wins than any candidate (18)
** More overall state wins than any candidate (21)
** The highest percentage of primary wins (82%)
** The highest percent of overall state wins (64%)
** The highest percent of primary delegates (68%)
** The highest percent of overall delegates (60%)
** And Trump now leads all candidates in the highest percent of overall votes (58%).
And Donald Trump started out last year competing against 16 primary opponents.
(Note although not noted at RealClearPolitics.com caucus wins for Cruz in Colorado, Wyoming and North Dakota, Sanders in Maine, Alaska and Washington and Hillary in Iowa and Nevada were added to these results. These states show no winners currently in the RCP data. If these caucus wins were not added to the data, Trump would be even further ahead in the areas mentioned above.)
To date, the Democratic race has been tighter than the Republican race based on wins and delegates. (However, the Democrats also have super delegates which are highly in Hillary’s favor at 502 to 38 for Sanders which are not included in these totals.) It continues to be very clear that both Cruz and Sanders benefit from caucuses over primaries.
As noted earlier Cruz will not only be mathematically eliminated from obtaining enough delegates to win the election outright by April 26th, he will have fallen to third place in popularity too.
Cruz needs two out of every three delegates next Tuesday to stay alive but he is way behind Trump in polling and currently in 3rd place in some of these states and therefore will be done Tuesday per data from RCP.
Bernie too will be mathematically eliminated from gaining enough delegates by next Tuesday. He currently needs a little less than half of the delegates next week to stay alive but is also behind in the polls to Hillary.
Bernie, like Cruz, will be mathematically eliminated from obtaining enough delegates to win the election outright next week.