Guest Post by Joe Hoft
Donald Trump is not only outperforming Ted Cruz in the election to date, he also outperforms Democrats Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders as well.
The election results to date (as of Sunday April 17th) show that Trump outshines all the candidates.
Donald Trump has:
** More primary wins (17)
** More overall state wins (20)
** The highest percentage of primary wins (81%)
** The highest percent of overall state wins (63%)
** The highest percent of primary delegates (65%)
** The highest percent of overall delegates (58%)
** And Trump ties Hillary for the highest percent of overall votes (57%).
And Donald Trump was competing against 16 primary opponents.
(This data above is obtained from the RealClearPolitics.com website. Caucus wins for Cruz in Colorado, Wyoming and North Dakota, Sanders in Maine, Alaska and Washington and Hillary in Iowa and Nevada were added to the results. These states show no winners currently in the RCP data. If these caucus wins were not added to the data, Trump would be even further ahead in the areas mentioned above.)
To date, the Democratic race is much tighter than the Republican race based on wins and delegates. (However, the Democrats also have super delegates. These Democrat superdelegates favor Hillary 469 to 31 for Sanders.
Also, it is very clear that both Cruz and Sanders benefit from caucuses over primaries.
With the next and final 16 state races all being primaries both Trump and Hillary should benefit. As noted earlier Cruz will not only be mathematically eliminated from obtaining enough delegates to win the election outright by April 26th, he will have fallen to third place in popularity in many of these state elections by April end too.
Bernie too most likely will be mathematically eliminated by April 26th. He currently has 1040 delegates and needs 2382 to win the election which means he needs 1342 of the remaining 1627 delegates to win the nomination. There are only 16 caucuses between Tuesday in New York and June 14th. There are 631 delegates between now and April 26th to be gained and Hillary is leading in most of these states. Bernie will need at least 326 of the 631 delegates distributed by April 26th to remain in the race and even if he gains this many, he will have to win all the remaining delegates to have enough delegates to win the nomination. With Hillary leading in these East Coast states it is very probable that Bernie, like Cruz, will be mathematically eliminated from obtaining enough delegates to win the election outright by April 26th.
But Bernie could surprise Hillary Clinton in New York. If that happens it could prolong his run a bit longer.
Cruz, however, will be eliminated in 9 days.