Election Prediction 2016: Current Trend Lines Show Trump Will Win in Landslide
Guest post by Joe Hoft
So what is going to happen on November 8?
On April 2nd of this year we predicted that Ted Cruz would be mathematically eliminated from the Republican race for President on April 27th because on that day he would need more delegates than would be available. We also predicted that on April 27th Donald Trump would accumulate 943 delegates which would put him well on track to win the Republican nomination.
April 27th came and Ted Cruz was eliminated and Trump had amassed 944 delegates (which later was updated to 950 delegates). We were spot on!
Our projection for the 2016 Presidential election is this—
Trump will win by a similar fashion as Reagan did in 1980 and here’s why –
Trump won big in the primaries –
This year Republicans crushed their previous record in the primaries for number of votes by 150% . Their old record was 20 million and this year 31 million voted in the primaries. The Democrats on the other hand had 7 million votes less than their record year in 2008 with 30 million this year compared to 37 million in 2008. Donald Trump also SHATTERED the GOP primary record by 1.4 million votes in a field of 17 candidates.
Many of the polls are biased –
These past few weeks a number of polls show Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by various margins. One poll reported by NBC/WSJ showed Hillary ahead by 11. However, it was never pointed out by investigative journalists that the poll was created by a Hillary Super PAC.
Also, it’s also well known that the Monmouth University poll is run by a Hillary Huckster who recently was caught manipulating a poll and then lied about it.
Realclearpolitics.com takes an average of these distorted polls to come up with their analysis of the current race. Their efforts are a great example of the phrase – ‘garbage in – garbage out’.
Many if not all of the polls include samples that are heavily skewed towards Democrats or women. WikiLeaks released Clinton emails showing there efforts to work with the pollsters to corrupt the polls and discourage Trump supporters.
Rallies Show Massive Excitement for Trump and None for Hillary –
We have kept track of the number of participants at both Trump and Hillary rallies since the conventions in July. Since August 1stTrump has crushed Hillary in these events. Trump rallies have accumulated more than 710,000 in August through October while Hillary’s only at 60,000. These numbers are so huge they cannot be ignored!
Social media numbers for Trump heavily outpace Clinton.
The Bernie Factor
Ask any Democrat who supported Bernie Sanders whether they will vote for Hillary. The answer is ‘no’. A significant number of Bernie fans hate Hillary Clinton for the super delegates she received to steal the election, for the questionable primary wins on her resume and because of the revelations in WikiLeaks where she slams Bernie and cheated at every turn. The Bernie people know that the media is biased and will not vote for Hillary and this is a significant number of Democrats.
Finally, look around. How many people in your area have Hillary signs in their front yard or on their car? Everywhere you go you see Trump signs. However, you could drive for miles and see no Hillary signs. The excitement for Hillary is just not there.
Based on Current Polls –
Based on a statistical analysis of current trends in the USC Dorsife/LA Times Poll we predict Trump at 49.9% and Hillary at 40.9% on election day.
Based on a statistical analysis of current trends in the IBD/TIPP Poll we predict Trump at 47.7% and Hillary at 43.4% on election day.
In Summary: We believe Americans will not vote for such a corrupt and flawed individual as Hillary Clinton. Americans want a candidate they can respect and trust – Hillary is not that candidate.
Trump will win on Tuesday.
Trend lines show Trump will win by 4-9 points.
He will likely win by 7 points.