Guest Post by Joe Hoft
Based on current delegate counts and poll numbers Ted Cruz will be mathematically unable to reach the delegate count required for him to win the Republican Presidential nomination.
By the end April it will be clear that Ted Cruz has no chance of reaching the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination.
Actually in only 3 weeks, on April 26th, it will be clear that Ted Cruz cannot win.
(chart from Google)
Currently Cruz has only 463 delegates. Even if Cruz wins Wisconsin, which is a state whose delegates are winner take most (WTM), he still will not have enough delegates to win the election by April 26th.
This is in part because New York is leaning heavily towards Trump who leads according to polls listed at Real Clear Politics by as much as 36% . New York has a Republican primary where the delegates are split proportionally. So even if Cruz wins a third of the delegates, it won’t be enough. This is because come April 26th, there are five Republican Presidential primaries and three of these are winner take all (WTA). All three of these states are in the East where polls show Trump leading (Maryland and Pennsylvania) or there is no polling available with the state highly likely leaning towards Trump (Delaware).
Even if Cruz wins a third of the delegates in Rhode Island or Connecticut or any of these states, it will not be enough to keep him mathematically in the race.
(Chart by Joe Hoft)
Based on current numbers, come April 26th, Cruz will need 687 delegates to win the election but only 634 will be available.
Then Cruz’s only chance at the end of April to win the election is the highly unlikely scenario where Trump doesn’t gain enough delegates to win the nomination outright and that the Republican elites in a contested convention support Cruz.
Even if there were a contested convention, it is unlikely that the elites would offer the Presidency to Cruz over some other establishment candidate. The only other scenario is that Cruz hangs on and takes the candidate delegates from Kasich and Rubio for example, and hopes this is enough to overtake Trump. This, too, is a far out strategy.
If Cruz hangs on and doesn’t concede to Trump at the end of April, like Kasich is currently doing, Cruz comes across as unrealistic, out of touch and a sore loser.
Overall based on the numbers, because it is highly unlikely East Coast Republicans will vote for a Canadian- born Texan for President over a New York billionaire, April will be Cruz’s last hurrah. But on the bright side Ted, you will always be welcomed back home in Canada.