Political Analyst Barone Picks Romney in a Landslide

U.S. Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney greets audience members at a campaign rally in Etna, Ohio November 2, 2012. (REUTERS/Brian Snyder)

Political analyst Michael Barone made his predictions today and sees Mitt Romney winning the election next Tuesday in a landslide.
Barone went out on a limb picking Mitt to win 315 electoral votes to Obama’s 223.
The Examiner reported:

Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That’s bad news for Barack Obama. True, Americans want to think well of their presidents and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president.

But it’s also true that most voters oppose Obama’s major policies and consider unsatisfactory the very sluggish economic recovery — Friday’s jobs report showed an unemployment uptick.

Also, both national and target state polls show that independents, voters who don’t identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, break for Romney.

That might not matter if Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 to 32 percent, as they did in the 2008 exit poll. But just about every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting — and about their candidate — than they were in 2008, and Democrats are less so.

That’s been apparent in early or absentee voting, in which Democrats trail their 2008 numbers in target states Virginia, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada.

The Obama campaign strategy, from the beginning, has recognized these handicaps, running barrages of early anti-Romney ads in states that Obama carried narrowly. But other states, not so heavily barraged, have come into contention.

Read Michael Barone’s individual state picks here.

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  • Bigkahuna

    He has pissed off so many voters and disappointed many others. I simply don’t see how Obama wins

  • Look-Out

    Thank you, Mr. Barone. You are at the top in your field.

    But let it only drive us to the ballot boxes to make it a reality. WE HAVE VICTORY WITHIN OUR GRASP.


  • bg
  • Jeremiah Lloyd

    Get out and vote. No emotions, no fear, this is to save your country. Romney whether he wins or not wimped out/was an idiot. It was bound to eventually be reflected in the poll. Don’t believe it’s going to be a blowout with Romney’s silence on Benghazi, the American voter is too smart. It’s like forgetting to ask a voter for his vote. I go with Rassmussen.

    As far as I’m concerned both Roberts and Christi are dead to me. I wouldn’t walk across the street to piss on them. Christi is probably personally responsible for two of the points.

    Chearleader Dick Morris has all of a sudden got religion:

    With that caution in mind, a danger signal comes from the latest Rasmussen Poll reflecting a 2-point gain for Obama.

    Whereas before the storm, Rasmussen showed Romney 2 points ahead, the poll now has the race tied at 48-48. That is troublesome.

    And, in Pennsylvania, Romney led on Wednesday night by 2 points but in Thursday night’s polling, he was tied.

    We have also seen slippage for Romney in Michigan.

    More troubling, Rasmussen shows a 2-point gain for Obama in job approval, rising from 48% to 50% in the current poll.

    All of these changes are, no doubt, related to Hurricane Sandy.

    Nobody really knows what the impact of Hurricane Sandy will be on the election.

    Until its waves crashed into the New Jersey shore, the election was well in hand for the Romney campaign.

  • NeoKong

    I want a Romney White House and a 52 seat Senate that includes Todd Akin.
    Is that so much to ask…?

  • RealMc





    R&R 2012.

  • John

    Obama failed. He failed to destroy the country in the first four years, we are more resilient than he thought.

  • MicahStone

    In dingbat pelosi’s town, lunatic-left-ville San Francisco, the d-cRAT socialists in charge are ready to “capitalize” (ironic word here, isn’t it?) on Romney’s landslide. They’ll be selling spots on the Golden Gate for the socialist extremists who can’t live without their Dear Leader to use for suicide jumps into the bay. If the demand warrants, they’ll let the d-cRAT losers jump off in groups of 1000. With luck, SF should be able to accommodate at least 250,000 leftists Nov 6 evening through Nov 7. Of course, by then, the socialists will be so depressed and despondent they won’t be able to wait for a jumping slot and will find other means to off themselves. All in all, these events should prove to be the best contributions to America and to humanity that the lunatic-left has ever made – and I thank them, in advance, for that.

  • Sam Stone

    I predict 6% Romney Ryan. Have since spring. I can’t fathom the majority of the voting public re-electing the incumbent. If they do, I feel like I would be living in a foreign country.

  • bg
  • Sam Stone

    Obama won by about 7% points in 2008. In 4 years has he GAINED any votes?
    Those who may have voted for Obama when they entered college 4 years ago will now say what?
    Those religious voters who may have voted for Obama and now see their religious beliefs violated now say what?
    Will any previous McCain voters now vote Obama/Crazy Uncle Joe?
    Will any previous Obama/Crazy Uncle Joe voters now vote for Romney/Ryan?

  • Oliver

    jeez I hope this guy knows what he’s talking about.
    voter fraud and funny business is a real concern that only a landslide may overcome.

  • Look-Out

    Don’t remind me of that Chris Christie. Like the Red Cross, he feeds himself first.

    He showed what we feared he was at the Republican Convention. Did he ever stop tooting his own horn? I stopped listening.

  • I would expect that each of you would be as gracious in defeat as you would be in victory. Obama might surprise.

  • Granny

    #4 – I wouldn’t pay attention to that at all. Rasmussen is a rolling poll and it got pretty disrupted by the storm.

    As a matter of fact, I might almost be willing to put New York in play with NYC knocked out. I’ve heard it said that without NYC that NY state would be red. They can’t even get water to people, never mind get the polling places open. And if they DO manage, who do you think all those people are going to vote for? I suspect it might not be those currently in charge.

  • Bob

    I’m not ready for a marxist dictatorship.

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  • SM-WI

    Here in Wisconsin—both me and my husband voted early for Romney/Ryan. And, my husband said that his 86 year old mother—-life long true blue Dem—who has NEVER EVER voted repub before said she was voting Romney/Ryan. I asked him a dozen times if she really said that. He said she said she just couldn’t vote for Obama again because she was thinking about her kids and grandkids, lack of jobs, Obamacare, etc! If my mother in law is voting Romney/Ryan, here in WI……she must be talking the same with her card club buddies and I’m thinking we’re going to turn WI RED on Tuesday!

  • Paz

    How did Rassmussen go from 52/47 to 48/48 in a week?

  • Glenn

    BTW,Ras actually had Romney up 484-47.6%. They rounded it off to 48-48.
    Also 4-maybe he should have mentioned Benghzi,I don’t know. Would the media bother covering it? Would they still not protect Obama? Would they not say Romney is playing politics? I don’t have the answers.
    I would also add that dramatics help nothing. Being hyserical when the fundamentals favor Romney is foolish. Also,where did Romney ever have a poll lead in PA or Michigan? I’ve never seen it.

  • Bill Mitchell

    Rasmussen is STILL using a D+4 sample for some bizarre reason. He even said on FoxNews 2 nights ago he believed the election would be D+2 at most. Oh well at this point the polls no longer matter except for the reputations of the pollster.

    Romney has this.

  • bobdog

    Makes me sorry I’m a Republican. I only get to vote once.

  • Jeffery
  • Look-Out
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  • Look-Out

    Campaign Carl says they’re predicting 20-30K at Romney’s OHIO event tonight.


    The arena looked jam-packed behind him.

    OHIO! You can save the USA!!

  • bg
  • Look-Out

    A bit from GP’s link to Barone’s state-by-state. GO PENNSYLVANIA, AND NEW HAMPSHIRE!!:

    New Hampshire (4). Polls are very tight here. I think superior Republican intensity will prevail. Romney.

    Pennsylvania (20). Everyone would have picked Obama two weeks ago. I think higher turnout in pro-coal Western Pennsylvania and higher Republican percentages in the Philadelphia suburbs could produce a surprise. The Romney team evidently thinks so too. Their investment in TV time is too expensive to be a mere feint, and, as this is written, Romney is planning a Sunday event in Bucks County outside Philly. Wobbling on my limb, Romney.

  • BetseyRoss

    The pollsters are going the wussy route and giving it a “too close to call” moniker for the last days of the weekend. They always do it. They have known all along that it will be a blowout for Romney. However at this late date I can’t imagine any of them actually being honest about it. They can’t. They would be accused of being in the tank for Romney/Obama…pick your candidate. It’s much better for them to be able to say that they never saw it coming and remind everyone of 1980 with Reagan/Carter.

    However, Michael Barone calling it a landslide it pretty newsworthy. He does pay attention to trends and I don’t know a single person that can’t wait to get into that voting booth next Tuesday and vote out our current POS.

  • if the american people have any sense this should be the most one-sided election in history.

  • bg


    Jeffery #23 November 2, 2012 at 6:13 pm

    thank you..

    i just tried posting it at FB and it was “disappeared”
    several times, had to resort to posting the following:

    huh, why is the Star Spangle Banner being censored??

    and then posting it in comments..

    will se if it stays or gets “dissapered” again,
    if so, i will re-post it all night if i have to.. 😡

    FB did the same with the SEALS stories.. 🙁


  • gastorgrab

    I’m gonna stick with my 310 prediction (actually 311).

  • bg


    gastorgrab #33 November 2, 2012 at 7:47 pm

    hmmm.. 😉


  • Look-Out

    If you care, ROVE now predicting 275+ for ROMNEY. “It’ll be very close, but we’ll find out in the early morning hrs. of Wednesday that he’s won”.

  • owl

    Jeffery#23 That is one of my favorites. The best!

  • owl

    I still dream of giving Christie a reallllly big ole hug for his photo op.

  • Miss Peach

    From your mouth to God’s ears, Mr. Barone !

  • Sandy

    Romney/Ryan — R&R stands for Rest and Rehabilitation and boy do we need that.

  • bg


    November 2, 2012

    What To Expect In The Closing Hours

    by Mychal Massie

    We’re down to the last days of this campaign and the logical
    question is — what might we expect in the closing hours of same?

    I personally would not be surprised to see New Jersey and New York be major players in these waning hours.

    The superstorm Sandy has wreaked nearly unimaginable damage to communities specifically in those areas. There are gas lines over a mile long. The tunnels in New York are still flooded. Airports are able to handle only limited flights per day with parts of LaGuardia Airport still under water. The devastation in New Jersey is beyond description.

    So it seems more than likely to me that come election day there will be an outcry from people who argue they were not able to get to the polls to vote. And that assumes all of the polling places are even able to open which is highly improbable.

    On the surface this would seem to be no big deal for Obama, after all, he is expected to carry both of those states, anyway. But with that said, it does set the stage for lawsuits and cries of disenfranchisement. It also sets the stage for Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton to leap into action claiming that the election should be delayed so as to allow all the poor black people to get out to vote.

    All of this is only speculation of course, but I think it is something we should be prepared to see. It is my opinion that it’s more than reasonable to expect it. What better opportunity, what better complaint to incur legal action and cries of disenfranchisement?

    We already know that Obama has legions of lawyers in position to bring legal action at the least complaint. So it is not unreasonable to expect them to use those in the storm-damaged areas to foment such action.

    Obama has maintained a high profile in New Jersey. He and Governor Christie have been photographed and videoed extensively as they surveyed storm-damaged New Jersey.

    But any argument that can be offered to support Obama’s (I say feigned) interest in these storm-damaged areas must be balanced by the lack of attention and disinterest he showed to those who suffered other devastations.

    He showed no such concern for the people in Joplin, Missouri after the people there suffered the wrath of an F5 tornado. The entire town of Joplin was virtually destroyed. Now over a year later people are still struggling to get back on their feet. Where was Obama during their hour of tragedy?

    The Gulf Coast oil spill was certainly not his shining moment. He had to be pressured to visit the Gulf Coast area, and, even at that, his visit turned into little more than a photo-op. Other areas of the country suffered devastating tornadoes and fires and he did little more than fly in — do an obligatory photo-op — and then leave.

    It might seem cruel or unfair of me to castigate him in this instance, but I am saying his actions must be kept in context with his past actions pursuant to storm damage and fires.

    But, specific to my point, it is worth noting that he has yet to tour West Virginia, Pennsylvania or Michigan. The people of those states are also suffering in the aftermath of Sandy.

    Maybe this was the natural disaster that he could not ignore. After all, it did happen in the media capital of the world. That said, his presence was not the same in the areas I referenced above. Few honest observers would argue that he was using this as an opportunity to play leader — especially with his dismissive negligence in Benghazi hanging around his neck like an anchor.

    It remains to be seen just how all of this plays out, but I think it important to remember the Obama motto is to never let a good crisis go to waste.


  • From his mouth to God’s ear.

  • bg


    Mitt-mentum! 😉


  • bg
  • mike cameron

    Someone had to be kidding that Obama got a lift from Hurricane Sandy. It’s beyond obvious now that he flew in for a photo op with Christie and then jetted to Vegas and continued on the campaign trail. With people in NY/NJ begging for their lives, Obama looks insensitive and neglectful at best. Obama is an actor who’s been exposed as being about himself, and not the people. As shown by Benghazi, he is a horrible leader. And then there’s the economy, which he will plunge further into the depths with entitlements and what’s now a very apparent socialist bent. The choice keeps getting clearer for everyone. Romney is a good man, a savvy and successful business leader. He’s run a very good race, and that is always telling. (To my chagrin, McCain did not.) If you care about the future of our country, which is in deep trouble but certainly can be great again, Romney. Please, folks, do the right thing.

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  • lizzytalorburton

    I hope its Romney! Obama really is hurting a lot of people, big business people, small business people, Catholics, Jews, Coalminers, doctors, companies, corporations, 23 million of us looking for work, etc., etc.. He is just so radically marxist, he’s insane and he has driven all of us insane. He should never have been President, he does not have enough smarts. He is a liar, has no character or depth or compassion. He just wants what he wants without taking advice from anyone else, thinks he knows it all, has no patience for meetings, discussions, White House protocol, and if he is re-elected he will be worse. And besides, he is never in the White House, he only likes to campaign. He’s like a child who won’t do his homework. When he speaks while campaigning, he sounds pretty stupid and sarcastic. If he gets re-elected the real Obama will come all the way out. I don’t think he will be happy until America is in ruins.

  • peter simon

    Screw all the national polls and the state polls today showing Obama winning in most of the battlegrounds. God will not allow that Muslim radical to win again. And for some of my “friends” who say Obama decimated Al Queda and took out Osama Bin Laden who is a Muslim, that was only because he HAD to, and had pressure from Donald Trump and lots of other Christian warriors! 2 more days and we will be a Christian nation once again, where abortion is MURDER under all circumstances and where the bible is the law of the land.