Leading Economics Blog: US Economy Already In Recession

Thanks Barack.
Forget the ifs, ands or buts… According to the top economics blog on the internet the US economy is already in recession.
The Economy Quietly Entered A Recession On Friday
Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge reported:

While the key market moving event from last Friday may have been Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech which merely left the door open to future QE episodes, the most important event from an economic standpoint was the first GDP revision Q2, which dropped from preliminary 1.3% to a sub stall speed, in real terms, 1.0%. What is just as important is that as the following chart from Bloomberg demonstrates, the YoY change in real GDP, which is now at 1.5%, is a slam dunk indicator of recession: “Since 1948, every time the four-quarter change has fallen below 2 percent, the economy has entered a recession. It’s hard to argue against an indicator with such a long history of accuracy.” Bernanke agreed that “growth has for the most part been at rates insufficient to achieve sustained reductions in unemployment.” And while Bernanke is shifting dangerously into Greenspan territory with the open-ended interpretation of his statement, another thing that is more actionable is the observation that virtually every time real YoY GDP has dropped below 1.5%, this has led to a negative nonfarm payroll number. Granted, the result may not be as shocking as what the Philly Fed implied vis-a-vis this Friday’s NFP, but we believe a subzero print in the August labor report will convince the three Fed holdouts that the time for yet another monetary intervention is here (Arab Spring part deux consequences be damned).

And, here are the latest micro-economic charts that tell the real story behind the Obama economy.

Scary stuff.

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  • Crackermike

    If this is the best Obama can show even with cooked books, imagine how bad it REALLY is. Recession my ass, this is a full blown Obamapression.

  • workingclass artist

    Doom….just in time for EPA induced rolling blackouts…

  • The Triguy

    C’mon guys. You know it’s not his fault! It’s just a string of bad luck…of bad luck…of bad luck…

    Will someone please turn off that broken record!

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  • regularguy

    If this turns out to be true over time, I pray it seals Obama’s fate. It’s hard to believe the electorate could be this bad if Obama can be reelected, even if this isn’t a double-dip. How bad must it be for so many in this country to not dump this loser?

  • ahem

    The marxists are getting what they created:a financial crisis so they can discredit the free-market economy and institutute full communism. Some moron at the Bloomberg site was advocating it openly only yesterday http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-29/give-marx-a-chance-to-save-the-world-economy-commentary-by-george-magnus.html

    They’re shameless and now they’re in our face. The economy works fine if the marxists don’t intentionally screw it up. Welcome to the toilet paper line.Welcome to the USSA.


    were we ever really OUT of it to begin with…odumbo has had 1 plan from day one …the total destruction of america…seems he is doing something right

  • Militant Conservative

    Obama, old kenyan word for F UP!

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  • mamagriz68

    Does anyone honestly believe we ever came out of the recession in the first place?

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  • ahem

    You have to wake up and realize something, folks:

    1. Obama is a Communist—that is the objective truth. He is also a Stalinist (cf the Gibson guitar company ) and a racist (cf Obama’s “autobiography”).

    2. His main strategy is to ruin the country financially. He has no hope of attaining his goals unless he does this first. He is not dim or misguided on this point; that is the the point, and it has one goal: government ownership of all property. Financial destabilization is the chief tactic the Left uses to take over. See, if you haven’t already, this great political cartoon from 1934: http://tinyurl.com/3lz6qoh The guy in the foreground is Trotsky. Read what his paper says.

    3. Marxism has failed wherever it’s gotten its claws into society and is responsible for the deaths of over 150 million innocent people in the 20th century (cf The Black book of Communism).

    4. The ability to own property is the hallmark of personal freedom. When the state owns everything, the individual is slave to it. Note that in the USSR, China, and Cuba, virtually every citizen lives in poverty and is in thrall to a powerful, rutheless class at the top that has confiscated all its resources.

    5. This is an evil political philosophy and must be defeated.

  • Militant Conservative

    Obama will ask for another stimulus package.

    He knows he will not get it due to the house republicans.

    Then he blames the R’s for the recession. Simple tactic.

    America is awake, well at least those who vote for patriots not kenyans.

    powder is dry

  • Actually I heard yesterday that indeed that is the “new” plan – a “new” Stimulus where Democrats told him to go big or go home. It was said they want a “shock and awe” number. Of course in the last 2.5 years we’ve tossed around trillions like nobody’s business so this one will have to be something else to “shock and awe” us.

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  • Objective Analysis

    Ephesians 6:10-17 “Finally, my brethren, be strong in the Lord, and in the power of his might. 11Put on the whole armour of God, that ye may be able to stand against the wiles of the devil. 12For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places. 13Wherefore take unto you the whole armour of God, that ye may be able to withstand in the evil day, and having done all, to stand. 14Stand therefore, having your loins girt about with truth, and having on the breastplate of righteousness; 15And your feet shod with the preparation of the gospel of peace; 16Above all, taking the shield of faith, wherewith ye shall be able to quench all the fiery darts of the wicked. 17And take the helmet of salvation, and the sword of the Spirit, which is the word of God: ”

    No wonder Obama (and his shadow govt) are so scared of christians and the tea party, etc.. If we follow what is instructed, they will LOOSE like history has shown it time and time again.

  • Ginger
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  • Fundamentally Change America…yep. He has done that.

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  • Ripped

    Did we really need an economic expert to tell us this. What we really need is to elect an economic expert as president and to get rid of this flunky 0bama.

  • Militant Conservative

    Ginger, OMG is right. Can you say your fired for cause. New Mexico cop.

  • We are in a REPRESSION and have been for three years.

    We can’t even go get our guys in the space station!

    Even a moron would keep one for an emergency!

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  • Ginger

    MC..It sounds like they are trying to cover for him. So Sad!

  • rbosque

    It hink there is no question this administration has done everything it can to prolong this resession Democrats have created since the Fannie & Freddie fiasco. The economic data clearly demonstrates either a willfull disregard to known sound economic principles or incompetence of the highest order. Granted, there are many unkown variables and shocks that contribute to market chaos but what we have here is a President and Congress that refuse to consider any reasonable fiscal policiy that demands discipline.

    Lowering taxes and getting rid of regulations whose costs equal the amount the fed gov’t collects in person revenue ($1.7T) is a good start. A business friendly policy is a good step in pointing us in a right direction. Unfortunately, Obama and his administration are such staunch ideaologues and their voting base seem to be unhinged Communists, it will take another President to start unravelling the madness that is this administration. I’m afraid that we’re going to be in this mess for a good while longer.

  • Black Sabbath

    Double-dip Hope and Change!
    Now, where are the Liberal trolls to defend this?

  • D. Walters

    @22 rbosque: ” Fannie & Freddie fiasco”? Do you really think that’s what caused Wall St to crash in 2008? I hope the kool-aid fox news is handing out is sugar free, ’cause your gonna become diabetic if you’re not already.

  • Scary stuff..

    ‘Hitler was named “Man of the Year” in 1938 by Time Magazine. They noted Hitler’s anti-capitalistic economic policies:

    “Most cruel joke of all, however, has been played by Hitler & Co. on those German capitalists and small businessmen who once backed National Socialism as a means of saving Germany’s bourgeois economic structure from radicalism. The Nazi credo that the individual belongs to the state also applies to business. Some businesses have been confiscated outright, on other what amounts to a capital tax has been levied. Profits have been strictly controlled. Some idea of the increasing Governmental control and interference in business could be deduced from the fact that 80% of all building and 50% of all industrial orders in Germany originated last year with the Government. Hard-pressed for food- stuffs as well as funds, the Nazi regime has taken over large estates and in many instances collectivized agriculture, a procedure fundamentally similar to Russian Communism.”

    (Source: Time Magazine; Jaunuary 2, 1939.)

    Hitler setup the Labour Front. Both employers and employees joined it. According to the National Labour Law of January 20, 1934, the state would exert direct influence and control over all business employing more than twenty persons. In other words, both employers and employees were put under the control of the government.’

    “We are socialists, we are enemies of today’s capitalistic economic system for the exploitation of the economically weak, with its unfair salaries, with its unseemly evaluation of a human being according to wealth and property instead of responsibility and performance, and we are all determined to destroy this system under all conditions.” —Adolf Hitler

    (Speech of May 1, 1927. Quoted by Toland, 1976, p. 306)

    This is not the FDR New Deal but the Nazi New Deal.. complete with Muslim collaborators.

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    Ok listen up guys. Remember this so I can say I told you so…..

    In 15-20 years, If this country still exists… the history books will show that the 2nd (or 3rd) great depression started in early 2011. This is after all the cooked books are examined, after the real unemployment numbers are discovered.


    On another note, #25 S Wolf is absolutely correct!! We are living in the early 1930s Germany – but the timetable is going much faster this time. I am afraid WW3 is not far in the future.

    This administration (and partially the last) has been seizing power at an astronomical rate.. They are open about their hope and change for Socialism.. and Power… – N.A.Z.I.

    {National Socialism – Initially Nazi political strategy focused on anti-big business, anti-bourgeois, and anti-capitalist rhetoric -Wikipedia} …… sound familiar

    Obama is not the new Hitler, He is just laying the groundwork for when the new Hitler arrives.

  • Patty

    Zero Hedge is a great site. And thank God they are there to give us the real perspective on the Obama Administration and all the damage done and what will be done to come.

    We are going to feel the repercussions of his regulations and policies for longer than you and I know. At least ZH is giving us the real opportunity to see it in black and white.

    We can’t afford 4 more years of him. Our nation will go in a free fall and it is coming faster and faster every day Obama is the White House. His ideas aren’t Ideas they declination of a Nation.

  • D. Walters

    @ #2 S. Wolf states:
    “… the history books will show that the 2nd (or 3rd) great depression started in early 2011.”

    -Only in Glen Beck’s parallel universe of fiction. The depression began with the bank failures/Wall St. crash of late 2008. Remember that? And then (-Before O was ever sworn in), Congress, with our heroes Boehner & Cantor voting right along with the majority, voted for a budget crushing Bankster Bailout. Let’s face it, almost All members of congress, republican and democrat alike with few exceptions are bought & paid for by Wall St. Lobbyists.

  • Freddy

    Who is Tyler Durden?

  • Blacque Jacques Shellacque

    While Obie can argue that he inherited the last recession, this one most certainly is HIS.

  • Crackermike

    RE:6, Bloomberg better watch closely what he allows on his sites, The Bolsheviks took the whole Russian Ruling family down into a celler and killed them in the most bloody possible way. As Mick Jagger said: :Anastasia screamed in vain”. Bloomberg is a high member of the American “elite” ruling family. The Commies just might kill him and the rest of his hellspawn. Is Bloomy a jew? just imagine what the moo-slimes would do to him. But just like French King Louis 16th, he can’t fathom it happening to HIM!!!

  • chuck in st paul

    Leading Economics Blog: US Economy Already In Recession

    Well thank you for that Captain Obvious. duh.

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  • Tyler Durden


    Tyler Durden is not one single man. Tyler Durden is an idea.

  • D. Walters

    We need to ALL be Tyler Durden

  • Markkit

    Americans don’t know how good they have it!! They complain about government and yet they pay so little in taxes.
    They should consider that in Europe sales/services taxes are 20% (25% in Sweden, try adding $250 to every $1000 spent!), consider that in Italy 27% of your salary goes towards social security, then add income tax at 20%-50%!
    How would Americans view government if they had to pay taxes like Europeans?

    Instead of feeling so frustrated with government Americans should begin finding ways to create jobs because there is so much money to be made and so little in taxes.
    Americans expect the government to reduce unemployment, well the low taxes in the USA should encourage just that, but still unemployment is high. Maybe its the American people that lack vision and will to work and not the government.

    I wish I had my business in the USA, where I could actually make some money.

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  • Jean

    Enough! Stop pointing fingers and wasting precious energy with blaming. Fix this. Regulate the banks again. Do not allow lobbists and big contributors to campaign funds to dictate policy. Limit terms. Do not move away from EPG standards – enhance them-guess what, more jobs fixing what is wrong! Give incentives to businesses to do this. Think about the situation at hand. Pay as you go. Remove pork items from the budget…allocations for money need to stand on their own. Do not allow Congress to give themselves another raise for subpar work until the budget is balanced. Just about everyone is office today would be fired for poor preformance if they worked at my company. Lots of other people need jobs who will work! Look at the bills pending…make sure global trade works both ways. Create incentives for businesses to work out of the USA…guess what, more jobs! Deal with illegal immigrants. If you want to come into our country, great (can’t blame you)…just come in legally. If an immigrant is registered and earns money here, pay taxes…If not, leave and don’t give aid to people who are not part of and further support the USA. In other words, get back to work!