Former President Donald Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 election surged to a record high on the PredictIt betting market during the first hour of the presidential debate.
PredictIt is a large online political prediction market, often called a “stock market for politics.”
The odds of Trump winning the election increased by over 10 percent before 10 p.m. EST; the debate began at 9 p.m.
BREAKING: The odds of Donald Trump winning the 2024 Presidential Election surge to a new high of 63%.
Since the debate started, odds of Trump winning the election have surged by over 10%.
Odds of President Biden winning a second term have fallen from 48% to 37%.
Markets… pic.twitter.com/Y08GWO8oZu
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 28, 2024
The Kobeissi Letter, an industry-leading newsletter on global capital markets, reported during the debate:
BREAKING: The odds of Donald Trump winning the 2024 Presidential Election surge to a new high of 63%.
Since the debate started, odds of Trump winning the election have surged by over 10%.
Odds of President Biden winning a second term have fallen from 48% to 37%.
Markets believe Donald Trump will be our next president.
Bloomberg explained in 2022 that to skirt the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, bets on PredictIt are limited to $850. However, the platform often runs multiple variations of the same question, so users can have much more riding on a single outcome.
“The site’s markets are mostly suggested by the traders themselves, some of whom are current or former campaign staffers who might be well positioned to answer questions such as ‘How many tweets will Donald Trump post from Nov. 20 to 27?’ or ‘When will Anthony Scaramucci’s role as White House communications director end?'” the report explained.
PredictIt co-founder John Phillips told the paper that the prevalence of politicos helps explain why the site so often gets it right.
“Prediction markets function as well as they do and are as accurate as they are … because these markets, like any markets, attract people with superior information,” he said on a podcast in 2016. “In the financial stock market, it’s called inside information.”
