Former Obama economic advisor and Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has warned that “a recession is ahead.”
Summers said that previous situations with high inflation and unemployment, like the one we are currently in, have led to recessions within a “year or two.”
“Look, nothing is certain and all economic forecasts have uncertainty. My best guess is that a recession is ahead,” Summers said while appearing on NBC’s “Meet The Press.” “I base that on the fact that we haven’t had a situation like the present with inflation above 4 percent and unemployment beyond 4 percent without a recession following within a year or two.”
Summers added that it’s likely “that in order to do what’s necessary to stop inflation. the Fed is going to raise interest rates enough that the economy will slip into recession.”
“And I think that view, which was not a common view a couple months ago, is now the view of a number of statistical models and the view of a range of forecasters and I think will increasingly become a consensus view,” Summers continued.
Current Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said during an interview on Sunday that she does not believe that a recession is inevitable.
“I expect the economy to slow,” Yellen said during an appearance on ABC’s “This Week.” “It’s been growing at a very rapid rate. … The labor market has recovered, and we have reached full employment.”
“It’s natural now that we expect a transition to steady and stable growth,” Yellen continued. “That’s going to take skill and work, but I believe it’s possible. I don’t think recession is inevitable.”
Joe Biden has made the same claim, telling The Associated Press last week that “first of all, it’s not inevitable.”
Biden added, “secondly, we’re in a stronger position than any nation in the world to overcome this inflation.”
Biden’s approval rating is currently just 39 percent, with 56 percent of Americans disapproving of his job since entering the White House.