On March 17, 2020, we were the first to identify that the WHO and the WHO’s Director General Tedros were pushing fraudulent numbers regarding the expected mortality of the coronavirus. The WHO over-stated the mortality rate of the virus by at least 30 times.
We then followed up with multiple posts on the subject. We reported on June 7, 2020, a study showed that when looking at the mortality rates for all causes this flu season, things aren’t much worse than a bad flu.
We followed up on this study on June 18th with more current data supporting these results.
Today we have more information based on more current data that supports our initial observations – that current mortality rates from the China coronavirus are within expectations for an above-average flu season with the exception of NYC.
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Dr. Richard Cross, PhD, provided us the following information related to the China coronavirus. We have updated the following as of June 6, 2020, through week 36:
The Week 36 P-Score (0.041) for the US is could be leveling off, showing an above average flu-level mortality for the year of about 4%. – -Excess deaths have climbed by from 67.9k to 84.5k for the nation through 36 weeks. This updated level remains below the estimated 114.5k COVID-19 mortality on Worldometers (on June 06).
This study is brilliant because it takes out the CDC’s confusing directive that stated that all deaths should be counted as coronavirus deaths, even if the cause may have been another condition. By counting all deaths, no matter the cause, we can clearly see the impact of the coronavirus on the nation is ‘not much worse than a bad seasonal flu’.
The study previously reported on the New York situation:
The relative impact on total mortality of the COVID-19 event in the New York City region was in a class by itself. Figure 2 shows the increased cumulative total mortality increase as measured by the P-Score compared to previous 6-year mortality trends for each state; this is a more sensitive indicator of mortality change for each state since each state’s current mortality is based upon the previous six years mortality trend for that state. In Figure 2, New York City (NYC) mortality excess is 68% and is the highest across all locales with the current data. By week 34 in the current season, NYC is so far outside the mortality space of the other regions that it inhabited a different mortality universe altogether. It was widely reported as well that New Jersey experienced a high level of COVID-19 deaths, which translated into a seasonal excess mortality of 28 percent greater than its own expected increase, but yet this is still far below NYC.
Here is a picture showing today’s results for total mortality in the US – not the results show mortality is approximately as expected and comparable to prior years:
Today’s results are consistent with the prior results on a state by state basis as well:
-NYC Total Mortality remains at Spanish Flu Levels for the season – New Jersey and Massachusetts remain high.
-Michigan and Illinois have increased marginally from week 35.
-Georgia and Texas are holding steady.
-California excess mortality is holding steady at less than 1%, and is marginally higher than Florida; both states are well within normal levels for flu season mortality. Florida remains open, although Calf. is locking back down.
-Some jurisdictions are still under-reporting mortality, in these tables, such as CT, PA, and NC and DC.
The Mainstream Media
As we reported previously, the media was responsible for the fear caused during this time period:
Much of the COVID-19 fear was sustained by media repetition and focus on daily and weekly COVID-19 infection rates and putative COVID-19 mortality that spiked in April. Daily and weekly mortality changes are quite variable, and the COVID-19 mortality estimates are partially confounded with total mortality, whereas cumulative weekly estimates of total mortality are highly regular. The growth pattern for COVID-19 mortality was shown day after day, but it was never placed within the context of the total cumulative mortality, and this gave rise to the impression that all the COVID-19 deaths were in fact directly caused by the disease, along with an additional false impression that the COVID-19 mortality was pushing the total mortality well above average for the year. These impressions turn out to be false.
Overall, these numbers are not surprising. The China coronavirus impact on the US was not as severe as predicted by the so-called experts.
Social distancing doesn’t appear to have much of an impact on overall mortality.
Finally, the actions of the governor and health officials in New York City caused that area to explode with cases and death, especially when compared to the rest of the country.
(Richard Cross PhD is a retired university professor, consulting psychologist, and research director in test development.)