The controversial Ethiopian politician and Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, claimed in a press conference in early March that the fatality rate for the coronavirus was many multiples that of the fatality rate of the common flu.
This egregiously false premise has led to the greatest global panic in history.
The Director General of the WHO spoke on March 3, 2020 and shared this related to the coronavirus:
Dr. Tedros: While many people globally have built up immunity to seasonal flu strains, COVID-19 is a new virus to which no one has immunity. That means more people are susceptible to infection, and some will suffer severe disease.
Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.
This statement led to the greatest panic in world history as the media all over the world shared and repeated that the coronavirus was many, many times more deadly than the common flu.
The problem is his statement is false. It was not accurate!
The Gateway Pundit reported yesterday, that the coronavirus fatality rate reported by the media was completely inaccurate and the actual rate from initial reporting found is less than the current seasonal flu – the media was lying again. The false reporting of the coronavirus fatality rate of 3.4% in the media started with the statements made by the WHO in early March.
Here’s a summary of the analysis from yesterday proving the Director General’s statement was very misleading and materially false:
N/A – not available
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** The fatality rate of the coronavirus was based on current data available of known positive cases and known deaths.
Oftentimes estimates have to be made because data is just not yet available. The Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, used the fatality rate of coronavirus with known numbers and used this as his prediction of eventual mortality rate. This was a faulty assumption. Estimates usually involve obtaining information that is available and making estimates on what is not. We cannot tell the future but we can make educated guesses based on information available. This is what has been done with the coronavirus because this type of virus has apparently never been seen before.
** Sometimes estimates are reasonable, and sometimes they are wrong, and even way off.
The point is that whenever estimates are made of large unknown values they are always wrong because no one can tell the future. Sometimes estimates end up close and sometimes they are not and sometimes they are way off.
The rate of the number of individuals who died from the flu to the number of individuals who were estimated to have had the flu is .1% (22,552 / 36 million). This is an estimate and the amount used above by the Director General of the WHO.
However, the rate of individuals who died from the flu to the number of individuals who were confirmed to have had the flu is around 10% (22,000/ 222,552). This is based on actual data similar to the rate for the coronavirus above.
** Current estimates between the flu and the coronavirus are not comparing ‘apples to apples’.
The fatality rate that is commonly referred to in the media for the coronavirus is 3.4% from the WHO. This number is based on confirmed cases of people with the coronavirus.
The flu fatality rate provided by the CDC of .1% includes an estimate of individuals who had the flu (36,000,000). This rate includes an estimate of all people with the flu, most who were not tested for the flu.
The fatality rate for the coronavirus does not include those who had the coronavirus but were not confirmed. This is why the flu fatality rate is .1% and the coronavirus fatality rate is 3.4%!
The two rates are like comparing apples to oranges. By doing so the coronavirus fatality rate is way overstated when compared to the flu and the WHO and the media has created a worldwide crisis and panic by reporting these rates simultaneously!
The coronavirus is not more fatal than the flu based on current data available. It is much less fatal than the flu based on current data.
** Those most at risk from the coronavirus are the elderly and sick (similar to the flu).
Similar to the flu, those most at risk of dying from the coronavirus are the elderly and the sick. The average age for those who died from the coronavirus in Italy is 81 years old. This is consistent around the world. There have been no known fatalities for any children 10 and under.
The sick are also at a higher risk similar to the flu. Current data shows that if you have no pre-existing conditions, your fatality rate if you contract the coronavirus is .9% (and what proportion of these cases are the elderly).
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