Guest post by Joe Hoft
(Photo of Trump in Florida from Jack Posobiec)
The blue wave is now a bygone figment of a liberal Hollywood fantasy.
Voter excitement is clearly with the Republican Party and President Donald Trump!
There is a Red Wave Rising!
One pundit, Michael E. Newton, has been tracking the 2018 mid-term election data to date. He addresses people’s questions about mid-term voting to date:
People keep asking me about the Democrats doing well recently in #earlyvoting because they are catching up in my “Change in Rep-Dem vs 2016.” This isn’t true. The Dems are not doing well. Let me explain…#MAGA #election2018
— Michael E. Newton (@MichaelENewton1) November 4, 2018
Newton explains that because Democrat and Republican voting may have gotten closer each day, doesn’t mean that the Democrats are really catching up in early voting. It just means the Republican percent of gains over 2016 are not as great as they were yesterday:
That doesn’t mean the Dems did better. In fact, the Republicans help their lead. But with a larger denominator, the Republicans no longer have the same percentage gain despite having the same nominal gain.#MAGA #election2018 #earlyvoting
— Michael E. Newton (@MichaelENewton1) November 4, 2018
What we have seen to date in the mid-term is that Republicans won early voting by huge margins but in recent days they have been about even per day.
In other words, Republicans won early #earlyvoting by huge margins, then they won the middle days by smaller margins, and more recent days have been about even.#MAGA #election2018
— Michael E. Newton (@MichaelENewton1) November 4, 2018
Newton summarizes, would you rather be the party that has improved their #earlyvoting share since 2016 [Republicans]? Or the party that is doing worse [Democrat Socialists]?
Moreover, would you rather be the party that has improved their #earlyvoting share since 2016? Or the party that is doing worse?#MAGA #election2018
— Michael E. Newton (@MichaelENewton1) November 4, 2018
Newton’s numbers to date show this:
— Michael E. Newton (@MichaelENewton1) November 4, 2018
Newton says that Republicans are doing better than 2016 and they won the House. The current results don’t show an insurmountable gain, but getting close!
Dems always catch up a little at end of #earlyvoting. I predicted they would this year too. But I also predict that Reps will finish more than 1.0% better than 2016, equal to ~200k added votes. I won’t call that an insurmountable gain, but it’s close to one.#MAGA #Election2018
— Michael E. Newton (@MichaelENewton1) November 4, 2018
We can only hope that Tuesday night is as fun as two years ago –
They just didn’t get it, but they do now! pic.twitter.com/9T50NupkDy
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 8, 2018
