Nate Silver Gives Democrats 86% Chance of Winning House… Also Gave Hillary Clinton 72% Chance of Winning in 2016
Liberal pollster Nate Silver at Five Thirty-Eight announced on Tuesday that Democrats have an 80% chance of retaking the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections.
If Democrats were to win every currently solid, likely and lean D race, and nothing else (an unlikely scenario), it would be enough to take the House https://t.co/XEpRZFANHa pic.twitter.com/kzIU9eG8Jc
— Aaron Bycoffe (@bycoffe) October 23, 2018
Nate Silver holds great respect from the liberal elites and politicos in Washington DC.
But he doesn’t have a very good success rate in the age of Trump politics.
In 2016 Nate Silver gave Hillary Clinton a 72% chance of winning. Nate Silver predicted Donald Trump would only win 236 electoral votes.
Nate Silver was wrong.
Our final forecast, issued early Tuesday evening, had Trump with a 29 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.1 By comparison, other models tracked by The New York Times put Trump’s odds at: 15 percent, 8 percent, 2 percent and less than 1 percent. And betting markets put Trump’s chances at just 18 percent at midnight on Tuesday, when Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, cast its votes.