Shock Poll: Trump Gets 20 Percent of Black Vote in Florida Poll; Leads Clinton Overall 43 to 41
Twenty percent of African-American voters in Florida support Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump according to a poll released Wednesday by Florida Atlantic University.
The poll hit as Trump is visiting Tampa for a mid-day rally at the State Fairgrounds.
The poll shows Trump with a two point lead of rival Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, 43 to 41 percent, within the poll’s 2.7 percent margin of error. Clinton has the support of 68 percent of African-American voters in Florida. 1200 registered Florida voters were surveyed from August 19-22.
The Washington Post reported in 2014 that incumbent Republican Governor Rick Scott received twelve percent of the Black vote for his reelection bid, noting that was an eight point improvement over 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney’s performance with Florida’s Black voters and Scott’s 2010 support.
“In Florida, Gov. Rick Scott (R) hit double digits, earning 12 percent of the black vote — an 8-point bump from Romney and from Scott’s showing in 2010.”
In recent weeks Trump has made outreach to Black voters a significant part of his campaign.
The internals of the poll state that 158 African-American voters surveyed comprised 13.1 percent of the 1200 voters surveyed overall. (Page 13.)
The Roper Center reported that nationally Romney received six percent of the African-American vote in 2012.
FAU Poll Finds Trump Edging Out Clinton in Florida
Murphy and Rubio Poised for Tough Senate Race
BOCA RATON, Fla. (August 24, 2016) – Republican nominee Donald Trump
leads Democrat Hillary Clinton in Florida 43 to 41 percent, with Libertarian Gary
Johnson taking 8 percent and 5 percent undecided, according to a new survey by the
Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative (FAU BEPI).
In the Florida race for the U.S. Senate, Democrat Patrick Murphy and Republican
Marco Rubio lead by wide margins before their respective party primaries on Tuesday,
Aug. 30, with Rubio leading Murphy 44 percent to 39 percent in a potential general
election matchup in November.
For the presidential race, both candidates are underwater in terms of their
favorability ratings in Florida. Trump scores a 41 percent favorable and 56 percent
unfavorable rating, while Clinton has 40 percent favorable and 58 percent unfavorable
rating. Clinton, meanwhile, has a loyalty score of 90 percent (those who have a favorable
opinion and are voting for her), while Trump has a loyalty score of 94 percent. Trump
leads among males 46 percent to 36 percent, but trails Clinton among women 45 percent
to 41 percent. Independents are voting for Trump by a wide margin of 47 percent to 26
Trump leads among white voters 49 to 33 percent, but trails with African
Americans 68 to 20 percent, as well as Hispanics 50 to 40 percent.
“The race between Clinton and Trump among Hispanics in Florida is closer than
it is nationally,” said Monica Escaleras, Ph.D., director of the BEPI. “Some of that is
probably the Cuban vote. Trump’s support among Latinos in Florida is helping him stay
Clinton is beating Trump in three of the four age groups. She leads with 18 to 34
year olds by three points, 38 to 35 percent; 55- to 74-year-old voters 45 to 43 percent;
while those over 75 provide her the strongest support at 60 to 34 percent. Trump leads
among 35- to 54-year-old voters 53 to 30 percent.
Trump’s strongest regional support is in the western part of Florida where he
leads 52 to 34 percent, and in the north at 47 to 32 percent. Trump also leads in the
central region 44 to 36 percent. Clinton’s support is in South Florida, where she leads 57
to 30 percent.
The top issue for voters was dissatisfaction with government at 29 percent,
followed by jobs at 18 percent; immigration at 13 percent; and ISIS at 12 percent.
The top quality for voters is experience at 27 percent; followed by Commander-in-Chief
at 16 percent; trustworthiness at 15 percent; and focus on the economy at 14 percent.
Wanting an outsider was mentioned by 12 percent of respondents.
Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., associate professor of political science at FAU and a
research fellow of the Initiative, said that despite the national trend, the presidential race
in Florida remains close and is within the survey’s margin of error.
“The fact that both Mr. Trump and Secretary Clinton are significantly upside
down in their favorability ratings could make it difficult for either to move substantially
ahead,” he said. “Clinton likely got a boost from the fact that Floridians chose experience
as the top quality they are looking for in their presidential candidate. But, Floridians also
chose dissatisfaction with government as their top issue, which likely favors Mr. Trump.”
The Florida poll was conducted Aug. 19-22. The polling sample was a random
selection of registered voters. The Democratic primary consisted of 364 registered
Democrat likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/-5.1 percent at a 95 percent
confidence level. The Republican primary consisted of 327 registered Republican likely
primary voters with a margin of error of +/-5.4 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.
The General election poll consisted of 1,200 registered likely voters with a margin of
error of +/-2.7 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.”
Yahoo News reported Trump is planning to meet with Black and Latino activists at Trump Tower on Thursday.
Mr Trump to meet with Black and Latino Activists at Trump Tower this week. pic.twitter.com/2hkhfmcyTB
— TRUMP 24/7 (@MichaelDelauzon) August 24, 2016
“Mr Trump to meet with Black and Latino Activists at Trump Tower this week.”