Final Battleground Poll Has Romney Winning Independents by 15 Points …Update: Romney Up in Rasmussen Poll


Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney kisses wife Ann Romney after they voted in Belmont, Mass., Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2012. (AP)

The final Battleground Poll has Mitt Romney winning Independents by 15 points.
The liberal media calls this a “Dead Heat.”

From the poll:
-Incumbent Obama at 47
-Romney winning Independents by 15 points
-Republicans leading in generic ballot

Politico reported”

The presidential race is tied going into Election Day.

The final POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of 1,000 likely voters — conducted Sunday and Monday — shows Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama each claiming 47 percent nationally.

Our previous poll, conducted Monday through Thursday of last week, found the race tied at 48 percent. Although Romney and Obama have each led at times, the two candidates have stayed within the margin of error since the spring.

Independents break for Romney by 15 points, 47 percent to 32 percent.

Across the 10 states identified by POLITICO as competitive, Obama leads 49 percent to 43 percent.

On the generic congressional ballot, Republicans edge Democrats by 47 percent to 46 percent. It was tied last week.

An identical number of voters approve of the president’s job performance, 49 percent, as disapprove.

UPDATE: Mitt Romney is up in the final Rasmussen poll49-48.

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  • Remco Kimber

    Probably not enough mental health professionals or clinics to handle the predicted lefty meltdown.

    But there is a solution: Don’t bother helping them; let them jump off the bridges,

  • Monkey Wrench

    If you believe in polls, then Obama has a small but persistent lead in enough states to get more than 270 electorial college votes. I thought the general consensus on this site is that polls are not accurate.

  • J

    I remember the night of the 2000 election when the press asked President Bush what would happen to him if he was not elected. He replied, with surprise, “I have a life, I’m Governor of Texas and a great family, I’ll be fine. I have a life.”.
    Hopefully, Romney will win, but just as President Bush, Romney has a wonderful life.

  • Noovuss

    #2 Monkey Wrench

    Polls with 11+ Dem sample? Those polls?

  • Tighterlines64

    I can honestly say it felt so good to do my duty and vote this morning. I just wish there would have been a NBP at the door. It would have been even more rewarding to let it know I would be voting for Romney.

  • NeoKong

    The final sack of lies before their big parade of tears.
    For the last three months all these leftie pundits have been doing is talking to themselves to try and reassure themselves Obama will win.
    When reality slaps them in the face tonight around midnight they will be in shock.
    Shock and awwwwwwww…

  • Monkey Wrench

    Everyone should post their prediction on the final electorial college count. Not what you want to happen, but what will happen.

    I tend to believe the polls, so i predict Obama will get 306. Much less than he got in 2008.

  • Monkey Wrench

    #4

    Yes. Those polls are included in the average of all the polls.

  • Blythe

    Scroll through the cross-tabs. The sample appears to be D+7.5 (R400/I170/D430).

    If the 2012 electorate is, in fact, D+7.5 then Obama will probably win. If I recall correctly, the 2008 electorate was D+7. So this poll projects that the the Democrats have actually increased their proportion of the electorate since 2008. Possible, but not likely. And certainly inconsistent with all other data indicating increased Republican turnout.

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  • Monkey Wrench

    #9

    So what is your prediction?

  • Oliver

    Listening to some of the dem pundits this morning, it struck me that a lot of these people actually have no idea how bad Obama has been. I guess that’s what happens when everything you see/hear is filtered through the main stream media.

    As for a prediction – impossible for 2 reasons:
    – skewed, unreliable polling
    – no way to calculate “the margin of corruption” (as Pat Caddell called it last night on O’Reilly)

  • Monkey Wrench

    #12

    Oh come on. Give us a prediction. Surely there is some polling data that is not skewed. What about Rasmussen or Fox News polls?

  • Romney is the man for the job.

  • Spider

    Just voted in upstate NY.

    My votes in races with national consequences:

    Romney (R) – Next president
    Nan Hayworth (R) – Will retain seat in new CD18
    Wendy Long (R) – unknown US Senate candidate who will sadly lose to Gillebrand

  • Oliver

    I predict someone will win and someone will lose. If Obama wins, Americans will lose.

    Based on data from UnskewedPolls.com — 275 for (51%) Romney, 263 Obama

    http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-will-win-the-presidency-with-275-electoral-votes

  • Larkin

    What everyone seems to be assuming, is that the +7.5 (or however many) dems turning out to vote is going to automatically help obama.

    This assumes that ALL dems are voting for o, and that’s just crazy.

    They have been just as “hammered” (as Fauxcohantas likes to say) as everyone else by o’s policies.

    That and the fact that o acts like a horse’s ass most of the time will turn many reasonable dems (and there are one or two out there) into Romney voters for at least one day.

  • Tom

    Actually if you go to the poll results Romney is up in the Politico poll 48-47. The story says 47-47 but the actual poll results indicate Romney us up +1. Here it is copied directly from their poll on pg 5

    7. If the Presidential election were held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote…
    (ROTATE NAMES)
    –Mitt Romney, the Republican,
    or
    — Barack Obama, the Democrat?
    Romney/definitely ……………………….. 44%
    IF “UNDECIDED”, ASK: Romney /probably …………………………. 4%
    And which candidate do you Romney/lean …………………………………….. *
    lean toward slightly?
    UNDECIDED (DNR) …………………….. 6%
    IF CHOICE MADE, ASK:
    Would you say that you are Obama/lean …………………………………… 1%
    definitely going to vote Obama/probably ……………………………. 2%
    for him, or probably Obama/definitely …………………………. 44%
    going to vote for him?

    Add it up yourself. 48 for Romney (44+4) and 47 for Obama (44+2+1). Another misleading story from Politico

  • Sandy

    I believe the Republican Internal Polls. Romney is gonna win this and Media has made certain that there will be violence by oversampling Dems to give the appearance of an Obama victory.

  • Jane

    Spider: I just voted in Poughkeepsie, New York. Voted for Romney, Wendy Long ( she was much better than Kirsten Gillibrand in the debate) Nan Hayworth, Neil Decarlo for State Senate.

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  • Linda

    Don’t make the mistake of thinking your vote isn’t needed…no matter who says what…VOTE!

  • Hatey Hateman

    #11 November 6, 2012 at 9:25 am
    Monkey Wrench commented:

    So what is your prediction?

    I predict if Romney wins your mom will kick you out of her basement. If zippy wins you’ll never grow the f up!

  • Granny

    #18 – Ever hear the saying that “there are three kinds of lies – lies, damned lies and statistics”?

    Well, polls are statistics. You can make them say pretty much anything you want them to say.

    What the answers to the Politico poll – or any other – are isn’t anywhere near as important as what was asked, how it was asked and who it was asked of.

    Two things are of paramount importance – the Dem/Independent/Republican breakdown and the margin of error. The higher the margin of error, the smaller the sample was and the less reliable the poll. Nearly all of the polls are using the D/I/R percentages from 2008, ignoring both the D/I/R from 2010, which was drastically different, and the surveys that show a current D/I/R that is closer to 33/33/33.

  • Ohio Paul

    Ohio Early voting – Romney has 75,000 lead where McCain lost the early voting by 365,000 votes – Still not even close to having all the precincts reporting in, especially rural ones and my county of Butler (55 of 318 reporting ) that went for McCain by 44,000 in 2008 Cuyahoga county huge Democrat base, has only 745 of 1063 reportinghttp://news.cincinnati.com/article/20121106/NEWS010601/311060015/Ohio-presidential-vote-by-counties

  • Monkey Wrench

    #23

    You really live up to your name. You might want to consider counseling. Doesn’t take much to push you over the edge. Given the adolescent nature of your insult, your comment looks like a classic case of projection.

  • We had our own poll this week-end at a Birthday party for my Father in Law. Out of 23 people there 14 say they are Dems and only 9 who were Repubs. When asked only 5 said they would vote for Obama…..

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  • Ohio Paul

    Interesting, Cincinnati Enquirer has pulled the early voting link. Guessing that the Dems was giving them grief.

  • Spider

    Ohio Paul, what’s your sense on the ground in O-H-I-O !

    Are you near a metro area? Cleveland, Columbus, Cincy?

    Who has the enthusiasm there?

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  • Chris

    Everyone who voted go vote on the Yahoo site poll on the front page and scroll down a little ways. It just simply asks who did you vote for. Right now Romney 57% and Obama 43%.

    http://www.yahoo.com/

  • Blythe

    @ Monkeywrench

    I predict a Romney win with Romney taking FL, NC, VA, OH, IA, and CO. I believe that is 281 EVs. If the electorate is R+5 or R+6 as Rasmussen and Gallup suggested then it will be a blowout for Romney with 300+ EVs. I think Obama needs a D+5 electorate to compensate for his deficiencies with the independent vote. He does not have D+5 this year.

    FWIW, I am in Colorado which was D+9 in 2008. Romney is winning comfortably in early voting and all indications are that Romney will win the final election by a large margin in CO in 2012. CO is split almost evenly between D/R/I, and independents are voting for Romney by almost a 2-1 margin. It will likely be a 12-15 point swing from 2008 to 2012.

    RCP average shows Obama up 1.5 in CO, which is horribly out of synch with voter registration and early voting results. Either the polls massively oversampled Democrats to obtain their preferred result or Republicans were massively overrepresented in early voting in 2012. I suspect the former.

    Riddle me this: if Colorado swings by 12-15 points from 2008 to 2012, why should we not expect similar swings in the other swing states?

  • George

    Vote and wait

  • Tom

    #24 I understand your point and agree 100%. Point I was trying to make is Politico has a story that their poll shows a tie. The sense on the ground is polls are tied or going toward Obama with exception of Rasmussen and Gallup that have had Romney up for a while. This Politico poll should have destroyed that narrative. Problem is the story dominates that actual poll results.

    I have written the author (email and tweet) and he will not reply. Makes me believe that James Hohmann (email address [email protected]) has an agenda.

    Bottom line is Politico found Romney 48 Obama 47 with a D+4 sample.

    If this poll is accurate Romney wins popular vote 51-49.

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  • Jeremiah Lloyd

    Romney is an idiot. It should not be this close. Close means recounts, no senate and eventual theft of the election, but hey it’s better to wear the nice loser label afterwards.

    Forget you have obvious truths against your opponent that makes him detestable. make certain there is an alligator arms, hands off on all issues bringing up these truths, effectively leaving the election a popularity contest so that the MSM can craft its FUD about Malibu.

    Dumb campaigner, doesn’t Romney understand that it was a rare situation, he was the only way these things would get communicated? That he’s fighting large scale voter theft?

    Strangely I have hopes that he won’t be the Rino in chief, we feared but he did do what we all feared, he played not to lose and timid.

    Get out and vote!!! RYAN in 2020.
    Melt down Christi for lard and give his family thirty pieces of silver. If we lose, he is the second biggest reason lose after Romney’s inability to identify what enemies he’s fighting/stupid campaign.

  • Hatey Hateman

    You really live up to your name. You might want to consider counseling. Doesn’t take much to push you over the edge. Given the adolescent nature of your insult, your comment looks like a classic case of projection.

    Lighten up, Francis! I was trying to add a little levity since you seem to want to stir up some sh!t on this blog.

  • mg4us

    I hope OHIO Republican Governor puts State Police at all Polling places to prevent Fraud and ballots magically appearing. . .

    Same in ALL other States. . .

    TEA Party patriots are out in force. . .behind every blade of grass is a Patriot. . .
    Time to Take our Country Back Big Time. . .

  • Monkey Wrench

    #38

    Ok Hatey. But you really should do something about your drinking problem, before it gets worse. You and i both know it’s the main reason you are having such a hard time finding a job.

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  • Sarah

    EVERYONE SHOULD BE MAKING CALLS FROM HOME FOR ROMNEY IF THERE IS NOT A CALL CENTER NEAR YOU. THE CAMPAIGN PAYS FOR THE CALLS. HELP GET OUT THE VOTE AND MAKE CALLS RIGHT UP TO THE FINISH LINE!!!!!!!!!!

  • Lars

    In St. Louis the lines have stretched farther than an obama document search.

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  • Highlander

    Let the trolling begin. Don’t you ever tire of this imposter crap Jeffie? We’re just going to ban you again …

    Whack a troll …