Voter Turnout Model Predicts Big Trouble for Obama in Ohio

More bad news for Barry…
Voter turnout models predict big trouble for the Obama Campaign in Ohio.
Pajamas Media reported:

“Simply stated, Cuyahoga County has lost enough Democrats and independents since 2008 that, when projected across the state of Ohio, Obama’s big 2008 gains are all gone. Given how drastically voter registration has changed in Cuyahoga County since 2008, it is likely that Romney can carry the state of Ohio, which is quite contrary to what popular media polls are saying.”

That’s the analysis of Clinton Cooper at Election Insights, an Ohio firm that uses geographic information systems (GIS) and election data to illustrate the political landscape of the electorate.

While most pundits and media outlets are focused on the latest polls, flitting from registered voters to probable voters to undecided voters to disaffected voters to Karl Rove’s trusty whiteboard, Cooper claims the polls are inaccurate and that there’s a more scientific method for determining both voter turnout and the probable outcome of the election. In an exclusive interview with PJ Media, he said that his “simple model estimation shows that with certainty, current polling estimations in Ohio are based on outdated or ill-informed assumptions resulting in wrong conclusions.”

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  • Dale

    OHIO – please please please get EVERY republican out to vote. We can’t rest until it’s over. This is going to be downright SCARY but just GET OUT AND VOTE!!!! We need you more than ever.

  • Marmo

    Ok, this is more like it. Yesterday, I saw the electoral college map on the RCP web site and it had:

    Obama: 269
    Romney: 181
    Toss-up: 88

    I thought WTF? Obama just needs one vote to reach 270? With this news from Ohio, which I hope is accurate, and the debate knockout, I’m feeling much better about Romney’s prospects. I’ve had a hard time believing that there are that many stupid people out there that will vote for Obama no matter what.

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  • GotFreedom

    Cuyahoga Cty has long been a Dem strong hold or should we say strangle hold. . .just think Sherrod Brown, Marcia Fudge, Betty Sutton, and the piesta resistance, Dennis Kucinich. . .too many folks enjoying living under the “nanny state” brought to them by the aforementioned! And lets not forget about our local politicos. . .corrupt as can be and yet folks around here continue to vote for them–WTH??? Corruption/Cleveland/Cuyahoga County are all synonymous with Dems! For every 2 homes in the metropolitan area (nanny state homes), their is one home in the “burbs” who are paying for their phones/food stamps/welfare. . .which also means 2 votes to 1. . .WAKE UP NORTH EAST OHIO!

  • GotFreedom

    These stats are probably why he’s here in town (again)!!! Please just go away. . .We don’t want to see you in person. . .on TV or here your lying voice on the radio!!!

  • Male Silverback

    DO NOT rest on your laurels. Get out and vote. We need a landslide to prevent team Obama from any possible litigation to steal the eleciton.

  • James Beam

    Marmo. RCP is always skewed by its composition of skewed polls. It’s meaningless now.

  • YourMaster

    99% of the liberals will commit suicide if obama loses the election.
    …which I hope he does, please please please ohio… kick obama/biden from office

    …watching the liberals in pain and anguish… and drowning in tears
    Will be totally worth it. …and then you will see the real libs come out…
    and blame everything on obama… and admit flat out that he was a total failure to the office, the country and the whole democrat party – and that he f*cked everyone over worse in 4 yrs what any republican could ever do in 100 yrs.

  • Finncrisp

    I have been working in the Romney victory centers here and there is an extraordinary ground game in Ohio. Lots of calls, lots of door knocks. There is a keen interest in getting Romney a win here. His rallys are well attended and enthusiastic. We are not paying $11 and hour for people to show up. Go MITT !

  • TXPatriot

    So is Ohio one of the 19 states that won’t have exit polling in November?

  • Rick554

    Just talked to a lady at the cuyahoga board of elections. She said they just shipped out 180,000 ballots that should begin to arrive on tuesday. Dont know for sure, but that seems like a helluva lot!

  • TJ

    As a resident of Ohio, I cannot accept the multiple polls reporting Obama with huge leads in Ohio. Lots of talk against Obama, and virtually all political lawn sides I see are for Republican candidates.

  • DiAnn

    PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE Ohio – pull this win out for Romney. The ENTIRE nation is depending on a few voters in VA, FL, OH, IA, CO and NV to wake up and vote Romney.

  • kato

    The question is why have so many Democratic registrations disappeared in Cuyahoga County. Did I miss some news about the county cleaning up the voter rolls? Are Subprime’s subprime parasites not going to try to rig the election this time? As far as I can see, we’ve probably got fewer Republicans living in the county and more people on the dole, both white and black.

    And we knows dat da minorities gots der cellphones, and dat Romney sucks. So dey be awl votin’ least once for der sugah daddy.

    #11: I know several Republicans who are leery of mailing in their ballot at all, let alone early. They’re afraid the ballots may go missing between now and Election Day. I’m one of them.

  • kato


    Those who have woken up in Cuyahoga County have probably moved out. The rest of us are here because of a particular necessity or from inertia.

    There’s no joy in watching what was once one of the 10 most important cities in America turned into a sh-thole, as Cleveland has in the past 40-odd years. And it’s sickening to see on a daily basis people who are willfully subeducated, willfully subprime, and perfectly happy to be living off others.

    There are actually people who still believe that Cleveland is coming back. (Some have been believing it for 20-30 years.) I keep trying to tell them that a city that is Democrat, union, and black isn’t going anywhere but down.

  • Bill Mitchell

    The sad news for Team Obama is that these pollsters will have to get religion in the final week before the election and show a HUGE SURGE toward Romney as they make their samples accurate.

    Pew, which “got it right” in 2008 had Obama leading McCain by 14 points a week before the election. According to Pew, McCain surged 8 points in the final week. Of course he didn’t, Pew just stopped cooking the sample.

  • Whistleblower

    As Obama’s cover story comes down, the curtain goes up on the USAO’s cover-up of J.J., Jr.’s role in the Blago story

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  • conservative dude

    I’ve been donating as much money as i can afford to Mr. Romney’s campaign and to Matt Kibbe’s Freedomworks. Freedomworks is getting people out and trained to do the groung game type of stuff. PLEASE DONATE NOW.

  • bg
  • MicahStone

    Here’s the PROBLEM: A Voter Turnout Model deals ONLY with live humans and doesn’t take into consideration the thousands and thousands of DEAD PEOPLE who ALWAYS vote the straight d-cRAT socialist ticket. Also, multiple votes by unionist goons and ILLEGALS are not included in the models – these multiple votes also ALWAYS go to the d-cRAT socialists. (But, remember, legitimizing the vote with Voter-ID is RACIST.)

  • GotFreedom

    #15 Kato. . .we hear ya. . .we too are long suffering NE Ohioans and are sick and tired of hearing all the “mistake by the lake” jokes. . .we are old enough to remember when this area was vital and thriving. . .ahhhhh, the good ole days!

    We agree with your sentiments completely!! Keep the faith and hopefully this area will (in our lifetimes) be revitalized and renewed to it’s former glory! 🙂

  • bg
  • bg




    Thank You Judge & Councel!!

    Congrats Pamela & Robert!!


  • Patty


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    Trickle-Down Government: Jobs Numbers Inflated by Public Sector Hires

  • Patty

    Ohio poll: Romney leads 51-48 among those certain to vote

    The first post-presidential debate poll in critical Ohio shows that Mitt Romney blunted President Obama’s momentum with his winning performance and is now leading the president among Ohioans who say that they are “certain” to vote.

    Overall, the race is deadlocked with Obama over Romney 50 percent to 49 percent, according to the poll taken Thursday night.

    But among the stunning 92 percent of all voters in the state who say they are certain to go to the polls on Election Day, Romney leads 51 percent to 48 percent. And among the 83 percent who have already made up their minds how they will vote, Romney is ahead 52 percent to 48 percent.

  • Limousine Barry

    Let me be clear, I promise each and every Ohio 0bama supporter FREE GASS. That is right. FREE GAS!

    All you have to do is pay me $42,666.99 per plate and you will have FREE GASS! The crappy food I serve at my fund raisers always causes gas! FREE GAS for only $42,666.99! What a deal!

    Remember no knives or forks allowed! The Secret Service will take them. User your fingers. Its the way I used to eat in Pakistan. Not your middle finger! Quit waiving your middle finger at me!

  • Judith

    Every Repub and every Conservative and every right minded inde get out and vote. And open those wallets. Mitt has our backs, now we need to have his. Go MITT! ILY

  • MEDIA traitors! FIRE LEFT MEDIA!

    OHIO will be a huge poverty state IF he gets reelected–why? COAL. Electricity will jump from $16 to $347 per kilowatts. GAS will jump to $10 a gallon. He wants to destroy military–he has already sent work to Brazil and GE has so much work overseas. $90B spent on junk solar panels.

    He wants a finland/swedish type government. No one lliving in the suburbs everyone in the cities-ride bikes, no fossil fuels, big big government. Every health decision is to made by the panel first. Read the swedish, denmark government–then you’ll see where we are headed. VTAT taxes, taxes, taxes! Europ has huge VTAT taxes! Money left to save?? think again..we all go down together–and for 4 years Jarrett, Axelrod, will do to the country whatever they want!!!!!

  • burt

    The Cuyahoga River – America’s only river condemed as a fire hazzard.

  • burt

    When I think of Cuyahoga County I think of Congressman Dennis J. Kucinich. Nuff said!