Germany’s birth rate has plunged to a perilous 1.35 children per woman in 2023, signaling a demographic catastrophe. For native German women, the figure is even grimmer at 1.23, the lowest in nearly three decades.
Foreign women in Germany boast a higher rate of 1.84, nearing replacement levels. Yet even their numbers are dipping, down steadily since 2017. Nevertheless, this disparity still highlights a stark divide in family futures.
Thilo Sarrazin, the provocative ex-Bundesbank official, revisits his explosive 2010 book “Germany Is Abolishing Itself.” His warnings of cultural erosion through migration now seem understated. He analyzes more recent data which accelerates his timeline for ethnic Germans becoming minorities.
Sarrazin once forecasted minority status in decades, assuming modest net immigration of 50,000 to 100,000 yearly. But post-2015 realities shattered that: averages hit 500,000 arrivals annually, mostly from non-EU Muslim nations. This surge has turbocharged the shift.
Today, ethnic Germans make up just 40% of births, per official stats. Among newborns, over half have migrant backgrounds. In the over-65 group, it’s only 15%, but for 15-year-olds, it’s 45%.
By 2070, Sarrazin projects 80% of births to non-German mothers, predominantly Muslim. He cautions it could worsen with fresh migration waves. This estimate paints a dystopian outlook for the future of the German people.
Immigrants radically reshape demographics, inflating housing costs and straining resources. Speculation and investors exacerbate the crunch, but arrivals are the prime culprit.
Germans crave families, desiring nearly two kids on average. But economic and political chaos derails plans, according to population expert Martin Bujard. Postponement turns permanent for many as ages climb.
“Uncertainty poisons family dreams”, Bujard warns. He stresses the need for reliable childcare, full-day schools, family housing. Cash handouts do nothing to solve the urgent need for housing and services.
This demographic dread is igniting political firestorms. Fears of cultural erasure and overburdened systems continue to rally conservative support towards Alterative fur Deutschland (AfD) as Fredrich Merz’s government fails to tackle these issues.
A fresh YouGov poll catapults AfD to 25% support, nipping at the CDU/CSU’s 27%. The ruling bloc, barely ten weeks in, faces 65% dissatisfaction. Voters are seething over inaction reflected in Friedrich Merz’s tanking approval with 59% negative views, and only 32% positive.
The merger of birth decline and the immigration boom spells electoral gold for AfD. Polls are revealing a voter revolt amidst elite denial.
Will Germany wake before it’s too late?
