Is the Worst Case Scenario for Coronavirus Overblown?… Will 21 Million Americans Really Need Hospitalization? This Is an Irresponsible Report
As of Saturday at 4:00 PM Eastern:
** There have been 2,499 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the US.
** There have been 55 deaths blamed on the coronavirus.
** There have been 36 million cases of seasonal flu.
** There have been 22,000 deaths blamed on seasonal flu.
So far this flu season there have been 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths from the flu this season.
Over one million Americans were tested for the flu and 222,000 of the tests came out positive for the flu.
The CDC predicted on a worst case scenario that 2.4 to 21 million Americans could require hospitalization due to the coronavirus.
The US has around 925,000 hospital beds.
Could 21 million Americans really require hospitalization due to the coronavirus?
Even in China there was nowhere near 21 million people hospitalized.
So far the experts who predicted the worst case scenario are off by millions.
Time will tell if this pandemic is the disaster the media and now the CDC is predicting.
The C.D.C.’s scenarios were depicted in terms of percentages of the population. Translated into absolute numbers by independent experts using simple models of how viruses spread, the worst-case figures would be staggering if no actions were taken to slow transmission.
Between 160 million and 214 million people in the U.S. could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to one projection. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.
And, the calculations based on the C.D.C.’s scenarios suggested, 2.4 million to 21 million people in the U.S. could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.