President Donald Trump’s popularity in the key swing state of Florida is surging, pushing him to a lead over every Democrat vying to challenge him for reelection in 2020–including former Vice President Joe Biden–according to a new Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative poll released Wednesday. With 29 electoral college votes, Florida is a must win for Republicans and Democrats and was key to Trump’s 2016 victory.
Trump’s approval in the Sunshine State has jumped to 47 percent compared to 41 percent approval in the February FAU poll when Trump’s popularity was underwater. He is now above water with 44 percent disapproval, down from 46 percent disapproval in February.
In head to head match-ups with the top Democrat presidential contenders, Trump beats them all. Biden, who dominates the Democrat field with 39 percent support of primary voters, is the closest, well within the poll’s +/-3 percent margin of error but also out of the margin for victory in a state where elections are won by tenths of a percent out of millions of votes.
Trump leads Biden 50.2 to 49.8 percent, the same lead as the 0.4 percent margin of victory last November by Republican Ron DeSantis over Democrat Andrew Gillum for the Florida governorship.
Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Florida in 2016 49.02 percent to 47.82 percent.
Trump beats Sen. Bernie Sanders (VT) 51.4 to 48.6 percent, the only other Democrat within the margin of error.
In contrast, in 2012 President Barack Obama beat Republican nominee Mitt Romney in Florida 50.01 percent to 49.13
South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg (IN) is the third ranked Democrat against Trump in the poll, with Trump beating him 51.7 percent to 48.3 percent.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (MA) is fourth against Trump with Trump leading Warren 52.2 percent to 47.8 percent.
Sen. Kamala Harris (CA) placed fifth among Democrats against Trump with Trump ahead 52.7 percent to 47.3 percent.
Among Democrat voters, Biden is well ahead of all contenders at 39.2 percent with Warren at 11.9 percent, Sanders at 11.6, Buttigieg at 8.8, Harris at 6.7, former Rep. Robert “Beto” O’Rourke (TX) at 4.9, former Obama HUD Sec. Julian Castro (TX) at 1.8 and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (NY) at 1.4 percent. Every other Democrat candidate polled below one percent.
The poll also shows no desire by Florida Republicans for a primary challenge against Trump. Trump crushes hypothetical challengers 84.6 percent to 5.0 percent for Sen. Marco Rubio (FL), former Ohio Governor John Kasich at 2.4 percent, former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld at 0.8 percent and Maryland Governor Larry Hogan at 0.3 percent. Weld is the only declared GOP challenger to Trump.
The FAU BEPI poll methodology: “The FAU BEPI Florida poll was conducted May 16-19, 2019. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,007, the poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data was weighted by ethnicity, age, education, party affiliation, region and gender based on a 2016 voter model. It is important to remember that subsets carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines (n=604) and an online panel provided by Dynata (n=403).”
FAU BEPI topline results for above numbers at this link.
