Guest post by Joe Hoft
Early ballots show a huge increase in voting in favor of Republicans. It looks like our prediction is holding up!
On June 23, 2018, we reported that the 2018 Mid-terms would be a referendum on government corruption and because of this President Trump and the Republicans would win big. This was before Democrats made up trumped up charges against a good man – Supreme Court Judge Brett Kavanaugh.
After the Kavanaugh hearings, where Judge Kavanaugh was wrongfully accused by the Democrats of being a gang rapist, the tide changed. We made our prediction on the election and we stated that a huge red wave was coming. Our mid-term prediction on October 2nd was that the Republicans would win big in the Senate and would keep the House.
Now there are some signs that the tide is turning red! Early balloting shows that Democrats are a little less than their 2016 early returns which is expected. The bigger news is that Republicans are ahead of their 2016 early ballot pace!
In a series of tweets Larry Schweikart shows that early returns are shockingly strong for Republicans.
Larry first explains that he doesn’t do polls. He uses actual numbers –
1) Just so you all understand what I do, for the one-millionth time, I don’t do polls.
Yes, from time to time I will post one for those of you who do. But we’re WAY past polls now because we have actual NUMBERS.
2) A poll is a sample of opinions that cost nothing to give.
— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) October 17, 2018
Larry explains that he examines ballot requests and ballot returns by party and in 2016 party ID was the single best predictor of a vote according to Pew [Research] and that party switchers in 2016 were 2 to 1 in favor of Democrats voting Republican –
6) I examine ballot REQUESTS and ballot RETURNS BY PARTY. (In 2016, party ID was the single best predictor of a vote according to Pew—very, very few party switchers, but those that were, by 2:1, went from Dem to Republican.
— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) October 18, 2018
So Larry compared the current numbers to 2016 –
7) But then you need to compare the current numbers to something. The rule of thumb is you never compare a mid-term with a presidential election because the turnout for the latter is supposed to be so much higher.
Guess what I did?
I compared it anyway, just out of intuition.
— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) October 18, 2018
In four states where there are already a large number of ballot requests (Arizona, Florida, Ohio and Iowa) so far Republicans are exceeding 2016 –
8) So, in four sample states where we are already seeing large #s of ballot requests—AZ, FL, OH, and IA—and which have very different voting patterns, I have found that so far (and anything can change—but usually the patterns hold) the Republicans are exceeding their #s
— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) October 18, 2018
Results are very good for Republicans –
8) contd . . . from 2016, a Presidential Election. This is not supposed to happen.
9) Moreover, with the help of Freepers “Ravi” and “SpeedyInTexas” and “Ohio Wan” and “The Accountant” and others, I have found that DemoKKKrats are falling behind their 2016 performance
— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) October 18, 2018
Democrats are behind 2016 Presidential year numbers so far and Republicans are ahead – this is not supposed to happen –
10) One would not be surprised that Ds are lagging behind 2016, a presidential election year. But it IS surprising that Rs are not only running ahead of 2014 (a midterm) but also 2016.
11) Just in case there was some weird state-wide tilt to these numbers, we also . . . .
— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) October 18, 2018
Schweikart takes some isolated examples across the states he tested and all the results show very positive results for Republicans. Also, the good news is that many people have already voted. Because of this the Republicans are ahead by a large margin and Democrats have a real challenge in overcoming early voting on election day. Schweikart says his model may be incorrect but the numbers are really solid right now.
