Red Wave Rising! Early Requests and Returns Show a Huge Red Wave Coming! Republican Early Voting Even Greater than 2016!

Guest post by Joe Hoft

Early ballots show a huge increase in voting in favor of Republicans.  It looks like our prediction is holding up!

On June 23, 2018, we reported that the 2018 Mid-terms would be a referendum on government corruption and because of this President Trump and the Republicans would win big.  This was before Democrats made up trumped up charges against a good man – Supreme Court Judge Brett Kavanaugh.

After the Kavanaugh hearings, where Judge Kavanaugh was wrongfully accused by the Democrats of being a gang rapist, the tide changed.  We made our prediction on the election and we stated that a huge red wave was coming.  Our mid-term prediction on October 2nd was that the Republicans would win big in the Senate and would keep the House.

Now there are some signs that the tide is turning red!  Early balloting shows that Democrats are a little less than their 2016 early returns which is expected.  The bigger news is that Republicans are ahead of their 2016 early ballot pace!

In a series of tweets Larry Schweikart shows that early returns are shockingly strong for Republicans.


Larry first explains that he doesn’t do polls. He uses actual numbers –

Larry explains that he examines ballot requests and ballot returns by party and in 2016 party ID was the single best predictor of a vote according to Pew [Research] and that party switchers in 2016 were 2 to 1 in favor of Democrats voting Republican –

So Larry compared the current numbers to 2016 –

In four states where there are already a large number of ballot requests (Arizona, Florida, Ohio and Iowa) so far Republicans are exceeding 2016 –

Results are very good for Republicans –

Democrats are behind 2016 Presidential year numbers so far and Republicans are ahead – this is not supposed to happen –

Schweikart takes some isolated examples across the states he tested and all the results show very positive results for Republicans. Also, the good news is that many people have already voted. Because of this the Republicans are ahead by a large margin and Democrats have a real challenge in overcoming early voting on election day. Schweikart says his model may be incorrect but the numbers are really solid right now.

Time will tell tell but it is beginning to look like a giant red wave is coming.

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