A new poll of three key swing states released Tuesday morning by Quinnipiac has stunning news that destroys the NeverTrump movement’s claim that presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump will lose in a landslide in November to presumptive Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton:
Trump leads Clinton in Ohio 43 to 39 and is in a statistical tie with Clinton in Florida 42 to 43 and Pennsylvania also 42 to 43.
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Trump is also competitive with independent Bernie Sanders who who competing for the Democrat nomination with Clinton.
The poll shows a wide gap between the races and sexes in support for Trump and Clinton. More whites and men support Trump in each state while more minorities and women support Clinton.
Details from the Quinnipiac statement on the poll:
In a race marked by wide gender, age and racial gaps, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are running neck and neck in the key presidential Swing States of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont runs stronger against the likely Republican nominee, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.
Clinton and Trump both have negative favorability ratings among voters in each state, compared to Sanders’ split score, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states.
The presidential matchups show:
Florida – Clinton at 43 percent, with 42 percent for Trump and Sanders at 44 percent to Trump’s 42 percent;
Ohio – Trump edges Clinton 43 – 39 percent, while Sanders gets 43 percent to Trump’s 41 percent;
Pennsylvania – Clinton at 43 percent to Trump’s 42 percent, while Sanders leads Trump 47 – 41 percent.
“Six months from Election Day, the presidential races between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the three most crucial states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, are too close to call,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.
“At this juncture, Trump is doing better in Pennsylvania than the GOP nominees in 2008 and 2012. And the two candidates are about where their party predecessors were at this point in Ohio and Florida.”
“This election may be good for divorce lawyers. The gender gap is massive and currently benefits Trump,” Brown added. “In Pennsylvania, Clinton’s 19-point lead among women matches Trump’s 21-point margin among men. In Ohio, she is up 7 points among women but down 15 points with men. In Florida she is up 13 points among women but down 13 points among men.”
“Trump would do a better job handling the economy, voters say. He also would do a better job handling terrorism, voters in Florida and Ohio say. Pennsylvania voters are divided.
“By wide margins, voters in all three states say Clinton is more intelligent than Trump and by smaller margins, voters in all three states say she has higher moral standards.”
The racial divide revealed in the poll: Florida “White voters go Republican 52 – 33 percent, while non-white voters go Democratic 63 – 20 percent”; Ohio “White voters go Republican 49 – 32 percent, as non-white voters vote Democratic 76 – 14 percent”; Pennsylvania “White voters go Republican 48 – 37 percent, while non-white voters go Democratic 74 – 14 percent.”
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One key area of concern for Trump is the perception that Clinton has a better temperament to handle an international crisis. In each state only about one third of voters believe Trump has the temperament to handle an international crisis while Clinton is perceived as able to handle one by just over fifty percent of voters.
But as noted in the Quinnipiac press release Trump does better than Clinton with voters on handling the economy and terrorism. More details available at the Quinnipiac site.