Will It Go Down to the Wire With a Brokered Convention?
(Kennedy Smith has compiled a documented record of 15% profit on horse race betting. Get his other shady money-making tips for free @TheKennedySmith)
Ah, the brokered convention. Since a young’un, I went to school humming Hail to the Chief after Bush the Elder came roaring back to thump Dukakis. I am in short, a political junkie. And before I die, I long to see a brokered convention. I also long to wed Tiffani Thiessen. Not happening.
From Sean Trende at RealClearPolitics (formerly home to Jay Cost, now at the Weekly Standard)
Could the GOP nomination battle end up in a brokered convention? That’s the hot question on pundits’ minds these days. The correct answer is that there’s a chance a brokered convention could occur, but it is exceedingly slim.
To understand why, we need a quick reminder on the Republican nomination system as it exists for 2012. Basically, the Republican National Committee looked enviously at the lengthy Democratic primary from 2008 — which strengthened the Democrats by forcing candidates to conduct registration drives and set up infrastructure in all 50 states — and decided that a longer primary system would benefit the GOP as well.
It’s good to put the candidates through their paces. To kick the tires and make sure they won’t collapse at the wrong time in the general election. But the long haul ain’t what it used to be. Mitt has the money to “go the distance”. Perry has the money to go the distance. If Gingrich thumps em in Iowa, he’ll get the money to go the distance. Ron Paul is something of an anomaly, and he can cruise along until he loses interest. Others will have to scramble and scrimp.
But heck, the distance stops short of Tennessee at this point. I didn’t even get the chance to vote for Fred Thompson. The fact is, most of us will have a sharply limited field by the time the horses fly by our stretch of track. And then everyone will just hope for a cabinet seat or a book deal.
And we’ll all tear up our betting slips and pull the same lever in November.