As Election Day Draws Near Do Not Forget—
Polls Overestimated Obama’s Strength By Average of 7 Percentage Points This Year
In 18 of 20 states this year polls overestimated Obama’s strength by an average of 7%.
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In theory, exit polls should match election results. But for all the care that goes into conducting accurate exit polls, errant results aren’t completely uncommon. Respected polling analyst Mark Blumenthal found that during the Democratic primaries this year, preliminary exit polls overestimated Obama’s strength in 18 of 20 states, by an average error of 7 percentage points, based on leaked early results.
The reason? Obama’s supporters were younger, better educated and often more enthusiastic than Hillary Clinton’s, meaning they were more likely to participate in exit polls.
Related… Exit polls in 2004 overstated Kerry’s vote in 26 states.