Larry Sabato & Crystal Ball Liberal Politics– Take 2 (Updated)
Luckily for the Republican nominee John McCain Europeans can’t vote in the November US presidential election – just 100 days away. If they could it would be a landslide for the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama.
Nevertheless Senator McCain has reason to be worried – very worried. Last week three leading political scientists declared the US media’s presentation of the election as a toss-up as a “myth”.
Alan Abramowitz, a professor of political science at Emory University, Thomas Mann, a senior fellow at Brookings Institution, and Larry Sabato, professor of politics at University of Virginia, accused the media of flogging a dead horse in trying to portray the presidential race as a cliffhanger.
It was a particularly bold call for Professor Sabato, who has previously cautioned about Senator Obama’s claims that he can redraw the political map in America. “While no election outcome is guaranteed and McCain’s prospects could improve over the next 3½ months, virtually all of the evidence that we have reviewed – historical patterns, structural features of this election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months – point to a comfortable Obama/Democratic Party victory in November,” the three men wrote in Sabato’s Crystal Ball newsletter.
Democratic nominee John Kerry easily would beat Republican President George W. Bush if the presidential election was held now, political analyst Larry Sabato told members of the Business Council of Alabama Saturday.
“Kerry would win very handily,” said Sabato, 52, a frequent guest of network television news shows and director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
Sabato, speaking at the BCA’s governmental affairs conference at the Grand Hotel Marriott Resort here, said the growing unpopularity of the Iraq war is the biggest factor hurting Bush’s re-election chances.
“He really will need a miracle to win, and the last miracle was for Harry S. Truman,” Sabato said in an interview after his speech. Truman pulled his upset presidential victory in 1948.
Agreed. This year’s election may be a landslide…
But, if Far Left Obama doesn’t attract more white voters, which he has been unable to do since the G-damn Wright incident, it will be a landslide for McCain.
Big Hat Tip Joshua
UPDATE: Bummer. Obama’s European bounce fades. The race is now within 3 points.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that Barack Obama’s Berlin bounce is fading. Obama now attracts 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%.
But, Obama is popular in Germany.