SUPER TUESDAY– Missouri Thread– McCain & Clinton Win

** I will be contributing to the Pajamas Media Super Tuesday Coverage throughout the day for Missouri and Arkansas election news– If you have anything you would like to contribute feel free to send it my way at- [email protected]

The St. Louis Post Dispatch was not very pleased that Senator Lieberman was traveling with Senator McCain today:

The Post Dispatch has Senator Lieberman listed as a Republican— He is a Democrat who ran as an Independent candidate in Connecticut. Joe Lieberman has never been a Republican.

It’s dreary in St. Louis today.

I drove by the Gateway Arch earlier and it was so foggy that you could not see all of it. This photo was taken in downtown St. Louis.


Missouri Total Registered Voters: 4,188,855
Missouri Voter Breakdown by Race:

Caucasian- 83%
Hispanic- 3%
African-American- 11%
Asian- 1%
Other- 2%

At Stake:
Republicans- 58 delegates
Democrats- 72 delegates

Here is a look at recent Misssouri polling numbers from Real Clear Politics:

What is significant, as Dan Riehl pointed out this past weekend, is that Governor Mitt Romney jumped 9 points in Missouri since the Florida Primary just one week ago. This is evidently part of the “Anybody but McCain” phenomena that we are seeing across the country. Here is another poll tracker from USA Today where you can see that Romney has jumped at least 5 points in the last week.

On the democratic side, the race is tight. Hillary Clinton holds a slight lead of 4.0% points over Barack Obama. However, Hillary’s lead has shrunk over the past month.

The Weather Factor:

St. Louis is currently under an extreme thunderstorm watch this morning. You can see from the regional weather map the forecast for Missouri today: rain, ice mix, and strong storms over the entire state of Missouri today. Their is a flooding threat across the region today. Local KSDK reported: “An energetic storm system will pass across the Bi-State area Tuesday into Tuesday night bringing heavy rain, severe thunderstorms and winter weather.” This could definitely play a factor in Missouri.

At noon the polling center in the city where I voted at was active but not overflowing with voters.

GOP Guy says that St. Louis County, the most populated county in Missouri, is expected to double the turnout compared to the 2004 primary. Absentee ballots have doubled in the county this year.

Just got my third robocall from Hillary today- no thanks.

UPDATE: (5:00 PM CST) It’s storming in St. Louis now.
GOP Guy passed on this Missouri snapshot from The Hotline.

St. Charles County officials are expecting record turnout but are concerned with the weather- It is storming in St. Louis now and there are flash flood warnings throughout the region.

From the Dopler Radar it looks like it’s going to be a stormy voting night.
The St. Louis Post Dispatch is reporting this on the voter turnout:

“It looks like we’re going to get to 35 or 40 percent pretty easily,” Leiendecker said, noting that about 27 percent of city voters cast ballots in the 2004 presidential primary.

St. Charles County Elections Director Rich Chrismer predicted a record turnout of more than 30 percent, and perhaps as high as 35 percent. A few polling places already had 24 percent turnout by noon, Chrismer said. He said the authority has only tracked primary turnout since 2000. That election set the previous record with 28.9 percent turnout.

The first Exit Polls come from Jim Geraghty:
Missouri: Romney 34 percent, McCain 32 percent, Huckabee 25 percent
This would be a BIG win for Romney.

UPDATE: (7:10 PM CST) The Missouri Secretary of State’s website is tracking the totals tonight.
The Post Dispatch is also tracking the results.
Also check CNN Election Central a> for updated results.

Historically the rural counties turn in their totals before the big city precincts from Kansas City and St. Louis. Huckabee would be expected to perform well in these rural precincts. FOX News just confirmed this. Huckabee did well in Green County where there is a strong evangelical population.

UPDATE 2: (7:45 PM CST) Big Guy reported on the St. Louis County unoffical absentee results: Democrat 64.23 GOP 35, McCain 1,762-38.74, Mitt Romney 1,147-25.22
The Missouri race may go late in the night.

UPDATE 3: (9:45 PM CST) Huck- 35%, McCain- 32%, Romney- 27% with 68% of precincts reporting. Romney may be too far back to catch Huckabee tonight.

UPDATE 4: Drudge gives Missouri to McCain. It looks like Huckabee will take a silver in the state. A bronze for Romney. This is a huge disappointment for the Romney Campaign. Drudge is also giving the the democratic primary to Hillary Clinton. This hurts Barack Obama who had the support of Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill.
Drudge may have jumped the gun- The totals look too close to call between the Huckabee and McCain.

UPDATE 5: It’s over. Senator McCain won.
In Missouri, 700,000 voters turned out for the Democrats. Just over 500,000 voters turned out for the Republican Party.

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