Although we’re still in the early stages of the so-called “Kamala Harris campaign,” initial polling would suggest President Trump does as well, if not better, in a head-to-head contest against the vice president as he did against Joe Biden.
As it stands, Kamala Harris’ poll numbers are abysmal. She currently polls as the most unpopular vice president since the advent of modern polling. Her 32 percent net favorability (compared with a 49% unfavorability rating) is lower than both Dan Quayle and Dick Cheney, the architect of the universally despised Iraq War.
A recent poll by HarrisX/Forbes gives President Trump a nine-point lead over Harris, 50% to 41%, higher than the lead that same poll gave him over Biden, 48% to 40%. When broken down by demographic group, the 45th President’s numbers look even more promising: HarrisX/Forbes gives President Trump a +15-point advantage over Harris among Independents, 48% to 33%, and a staggering +19-point lead, 58% to 39%, among voters between the ages of 18 and 34.
Although many polls are still recalibrating, with Sunday’s news of Joe Biden’s decision to not run for re-election, to Kamala Harris as the new Democratic candidate, early poll numbers in key battleground states indicate that President Trump does at least as well against Harris compared with Biden. For instance, 538 gives President Trump a 6-point lead in Arizona, compared to the 5-point lead Trump had there over Biden. Similarly, by that same poll, President Trump’s lead increased in Michigan, 46% to 41%, against Kamala Harris, up by 1% in the Great Lake State over Biden. President Trump also maintains sizable leads in both North Carolina and Pennsylvania over Kamala Harris, albeit by slightly smaller margins. Another poll even has President Trump leading Harris in New Hampshire by a point!
The betting markets, which have gauged national sentiment arguably better than the polls, give President Trump the advantage – and it’s not even close. Polymarket, a leading prediction market, places the 45th President’s odds of winning the general election at 64%, compared with 33% for Kamala. This comports with the advantage President Trump has received from other betting markets – such as Oddschecker, BetOnline, and Bovada – which all designate him as the overwhelming favorite to win the presidency.
Polymarket, a prediction market, forecasts President Trump will have a much greater likelihood of winning the presidency. Screen grab from July 23rd.
Since the news of Biden’s decision, the fourth estate has dutifully serviced its role in campaigning for the Democratic nominee, feeling reinvigorated that they can cheer on someone other than Joe Biden, who, as an octogenarian geriatric, was far from anyone’s idea of an inspiring candidate. Harris also benefited from a financial windfall in recent days – reportedly raking in more than $100 million dollars between Sunday afternoon and Monday evening, an obscene amount of money certain to replenish Democratic coffers that had been lagging behind the Trump Campaign’s fundraising in recent months, which has become a juggernaut in its own right. Nevertheless, the fundraising coupled with the endorsements coupled with the delegates (Harris secured enough of Biden’s pledged delegates, which will be released at next month’s DNC, for the nomination) has given a new lease on life for the Democrats and has buoyed Kamala Harris.
Polling is sure to capture that newfound momentum; hence, the good news for the Trump campaign is that Kamala’s polls can potentially be at their highest now. Once Harris’ luster begins to fade, and Democratic donors get a reality check that she is as bad if not worse a candidate than Biden, then the rinse-and-repeat process will start afresh, and so too potentially the search for a new candidate. Indeed, before Harris fever set in over the past 24 or so hours, the New York Times ranked the vice president as the least electable of a group of ten possible Democratic nominees.
Before Kamala Harris fever set in, the New York Times ranked the vice president as the least electable of a group of ten possible Democratic nominees.
As incredulous as it may seem, particularly at this late stage in the game – with the endorsements of Biden, Pelosi, and Hillary Clinton already in the bag – there is still a longshot chance that Harris may not be the Democratic nominee. Notably, the lack of Obama endorsement would suggest that he is betting on a contested convention, or at the very least is smart enough to wait on the sidelines to see if Harris has any real longevity. The cautious approach is the wise approach since it is almost certain that she will not be able to galvanize the party faithful, particularly once she begins to campaign more aggressively and better acquaints herself with more Americans – who are bound to be turned off by her rancid and cringeworthy public persona.
The time-tested adage you cannot teach an old dog new tricks proves especially true in presidential politics; and is apropos to a candidate with serious deficits in charisma, who has never endeared herself to any constituency at any stage in her political career, whether serving as California’s Attorney General or running for the Democratic primary. The fact that Harris could not get beyond single digits in the 2020 primary is yet further proof that she has major likeability and personality issues that complicate her presidency in unique ways that Biden and Obama never had to deal with. In that respect, she and Hillary Clinton, perhaps the most unlikable candidate to ever run for president, are kindred spirits. However, unlike Hillary, a hardened political veteran, who, for all her faults, was nevertheless conniving and ambitious in ways that would put Machiavelli to shame, Harris is a political lightweight, someone who is clearly out of her league in the national political arena.
She is no mastermind strategist or political genius of any sort, as demonstrated by her harebrained public statements, such as when she described the Russia-Ukraine war as a contest between Russia, “a bigger country” that “decided to invade a smaller country called Ukraine, so basically that’s wrong.” This was similarly observed in her sometimes drift into Ebonics, in an effort to (I suppose) appear more relatable, like when she said recently: “Yeah girl, I’m out here in these streets… The majority of us believe in freedom and equality, but these extremists, as they say, they not like us.”
So, all told, while Kamala Harris is the likeliest person to be the Democratic nominee, it would be wrong to consider her a shoo-in. The media hysteria surrounding her candidacy will be short-lived, particularly as new polls come out indicating that she is as bad a candidate as Joe Biden, and possibly worse. In fact, she was long considered the worst of the two candidates up until last month’s disastrous debate performance. To the extent she does any better than Biden now, it has nothing to do with any natural gifts she possesses, but simply that she is the beneficiary of Biden’s implosion. That does not bode well in a general election, where “not being Biden” will soon wear off – requiring Harris to own her horrible track record, her checkered past, and her widespread unpopularity.
What is more, a recent poll from the Democracy Institute found that over six in ten Americans consider her campaign undemocratic – sensing that she is a makeshift candidate being forced onto an unwilling populace, the byproduct of a coup playing out in real time. Biden is incompetent to carry out his duties as president, that has been true for a long time. Harris has known that probably since the day she took office, but rather than do the noble thing and exercise the 25th Amendment (or at least tell the truth about the cognitive decline of her boss), has looked the other way – and lied to the American people with unabashed impunity – putting hundreds of millions at risk. Even at this late stage where all has been exposed, she continues to cover up for Biden; she is the ultimate accomplice and active enabler in a conspiracy to defraud the American people.
This will all soon come out, if it has not already, sinking her odds. The Kamala Harris campaign is dead on arrival because, unlike MAGA which is an authentic grassroots movement supported by hundreds of millions of real Americans, it is being artificially propped up by shadowy actors plotting to subvert democracy – and our constitutional freedoms – behind the scenes. She, like Biden, is a puppet for a more nefarious operation, and for that reason will never be accepted by the body politic, who never supported her – and never will support her. That means she can only win by cheating, and so it is incumbent upon us to thwart that plot in its tracks, for the Democrats are shameless and will resort to any tactic, however sleazy and norm-breaking, to secure victory. Let us not be distracted by false media narratives, nor submit to the totally baseless idea that single-digits Kacklin’ Kamala can legitimately win a national presidential election, least of all to someone named Donald John Trump.
