A poll that projected the Brexit result and correctly predicted Donald Trump as the winner of the 2016 US presidential election, predicts the midterm “red wave” is becoming a “red tsunami.”
“The new poll finds Trump establishing a clear lead over Clinton, 50 percent to 45 percent, among decided voters. The outcome nevertheless remains in doubt, as an unusually large number of undecided voters (10 percent) could yet swing the election Clinton’s way, although their eventual, disproportionate support for Trump is the more probable development… If these late deciders end up voting for Trump…he could trounce Clinton by as much as 10 points in the popular vote.”
The Democracy Institute aims to provide a balanced and thoughtful perspective on topical issues, promoting open and rational debate based on evidence rather than ideology, per its website.
During a recent interview with Express, Patrick Basham predicted that voters in the United States are expected to severely punish Nancy Pelosi, Joe Biden, and the Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections.
A “red tsunami” is coming to this Tuesday’s election.
Watch the video below:
BREAKING: Patrick Basham, the pollster who correctly predicted Brexit and Trump 2016 says midterm “Red Wave” is forming into a full-on “Red Tsunami.” pic.twitter.com/m6D5RHL8re
— Election Wizard 🇺🇸 (@ElectionWiz) November 5, 2022
The exclusive monthly tracker poll for Express.co.uk by the Washington DC based Democracy Institute predicts that the Republicans will crush the Democrats in the races for the Senate and Congress.
The poll of 1,500 “likely voters” puts the Republicans (also known as the GOP) 51 percent to 46 percent ahead of the Democrats in the House of Representatives election.
According to the Democracy Institute this will give the GOP a minimum gain of 33 to 38 sears but a “probably gain” of 39 to 51 seats.
At the lowest point this would mean the Republicans have 245 seats with a majority of 55 but at the top end they could have 265 seats with a majority of 95.
It is a major reversal for Ms Pelosi, whose tenure as House Speaker will come to an end, and the Democrats who currently hold a majority with 220 to 212 seats and three vacancies.
The Democracy Institute has identified 70 battleground seats which could all switch to or stay with Republican red in swing states like Ohio, New York, Arizona, Florida and Pennsylvania.
But the results get worse for the Democrats in the Senate where they had been optimistic of holding off the Republicans and maintaining the current 50/ 50 seats status quo giving Vice President Kamala Harris the casting vote.
The poll suggests that likely voters who are willing to cast the ballot on Tuesday split 49 percent to 46 percent in favour of the Republicans.
This has led the Democracy Institute to increase its Senate seat projection of gains by one in favour of the Republicans from 53 to at least 54 with the Democrats left with 46.