Democrat Pollster Doug Schoen Says To ‘Brace For A Republican Wave’

Doug Schoen is a well respected pollster and is also a Democrat. When he tells you a Republican is going to win, he is not cheerleading, he’s just being honest.

In a new column written with Andrew Stein, Schoen is saying that this is going to be a wave election for Republicans.

This confirms the findings of several other polling outfits which are now showing numbers trending to Republicans.

Schoen and Stein write at the Wall Street Journal:

Brace Yourself for a Republican Wave

The Republican Party is on the cusp of a substantial midterm election victory that could rival their wins in 1994 and 2010.

There has been a 3-point swing to Republicans in generic-ballot polling in just the last month, according to the RealClearPolitics average. Democrats led by as much as 1.3 points in September, but as of Monday, Republicans were up by 1.8.

A late September ABC News/Washington Post poll found the Republican advantage concentrated where it’s needed most. The GOP had a 5-point lead among likely voters nationwide, but a 21-point margin in “competitive” congressional districts. Other battleground-district polls, from CBS News, Economist/YouGov and CNN, showed the GOP with a much narrower lead, but a consistent one…

If there are no upsets on either side and the toss-ups are evenly split, that brings Republicans to a 240-195 majority—a gain of 28 seats. A Republican sweep of the toss-up races would expand the majority to 259-176. That’s vanishingly unlikely, but so is a Democratic sweep of the toss-ups—which would still leave the GOP with a seven-seat majority…

The Senate has become less prone to major shifts as voting patterns have tended to line up with those in presidential races. Since 2014, the Republicans have never held fewer than 50 seats or more than 54. But with the chamber divided 50-50, a net gain of a single seat would give the GOP control. RealClearPolitics projects the Republicans will gain two seats, in Georgia and Nevada, and hold their current seats, for a 52-seat majority.

As the midterms get closer, they look better and better for the GOP.

How big will the wave be? That’s the question now.

Cross posted from American Lookout.


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