Trump Has 91% Chance Of Winning In November, Professor Says (And His Model Is Almost Never Wrong)

You’ve seen the polls: President Trump is going to get crushed in November.

But wait: Isn’t that what the polls said in 2016, when nearly every single pollster and mainstream media outlet predicting Hillary Clinton would win in a landslide?

Yes, yes it is.

So let’s turn to Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth and his “Primary Model,” which Fox News reports “has correctly predicted five out of the past six elections since 1996 and every single election but two in the past 108 years.”

“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth told Fox. “This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.”

“The exceptions include John F. Kennedy’s election in 1960 and George W. Bush’s election in 2000, when Bush won a majority of the electoral college despite losing the popular vote,” Mediaite reported.

Not only will Trump win, Norpoth’s model suggests, the president will expand his margin in the Electoral College from 304 electoral votes in 2016 to 362 in 2020. That would be nearly identical to the 365 electoral votes former President Barack Obama won in 2008.

The model calculates a candidate’s chance of winning based on their success in early presidential nominating contests, putting former Vice President Joe Biden at a severe disadvantage because of crushing losses in his party’s first two presidential nominating contests. He won 15.8 percent of the vote in Iowa’s caucuses, where he placed fourth, and 8.4 percent of the vote in the New Hampshire primary, placing fifth. It wasn’t until the Democratic Party’s third contest, South Carolina’s primary, that Biden began racking up victories on the way to his party’s nomination.

The only other candidate to win the Democratic nomination after losing those two critical states was Bill Clinton in 1992, and under significantly different circumstances. Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin won his state’s presidential primary that year, but fell to a fourth-place finish in New Hampshire while Clinton surged to second.

“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Norpoth told Mediaite. “The list is long and discouraging for early frontrunners. Beginning with Thomas Dewey in 1948, it spans such notables as Richard Nixon in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and John Kerry in 2004, to cite just the most spectacular cases.”




Thanks for sharing!