Professor Helmut Norpoth from Stony Brook University told Lou Dobbs on August 16th, 2016, that Donald Trump had an 87% chance of winning the 2016 Presidential election.
Professor Norpoth is a political science professor at Long Island’s Stony Brook University.
His model has been correct since 1996 on predicting the popular vote.
We reported that his 2016 forecast rested on a model that tracks cyclical movements in American presidential elections. It goes back to 1828, when popular voting became widespread and the two-party system took hold. Over nearly two centuries, American presidential elections have exhibited a distinct cycle. This is not the pattern associated with partisan realignments that may last 30 years or so, but a shorter cycle that relates to party control of the White House.
Norpoth made the prediction in March and says he still stands by his election prediction.
Helmut joined Lou Dobbs again tonight to discuss the 2020 election. He gives President Trump a 91% chance of winning the 2020 Presidential election.
Helmut said that he never saw an individual win an election who placed 5th in New Hampshire (Biden). He also said that President Trump did very well in the primaries this year while Biden didn’t do anything until he won South Carolina.