Seasonality Could Likely Flatten Exponential Growth Rate of Coronavirus in Coming Weeks If Not Days
Guest post via reader Nona.
One of the biggest problems in much of the analysis is the assumption that viral infections are open-endedly exponential.
But significant data refutes this.
The Gateway Pundit reported earlier today on the declining mortality rate as warmer weather moves in.
There is much research that has confirmed the seasonality of viral infections.
Via Science Digest:
Seasonality is a long-recognized attribute of many viral infections of humans, but the mechanisms underlying seasonality, particularly for person-to-person communicable diseases, remain poorly understood.
Specific research in China concluded that major factors include temperature and humidity:
High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of COVID-19 by Jingyuan Wang, Ke Tang, Kai Feng, Weifeng Lv :: SSRN
Abstract. This paper investigates how air temperature and humidity influence the transmission of COVID-19. After estimating the serial interval of COVID-19 from 105 pairs of the virus carrier and the infected, we calculate the daily effective reproductive number, R, for each of all 100 Chinese cities with more than 40 cases.
This means that the exponentiality of a viral pandemic is often mitigated by seasonality.
The China curve was exponential, then linear, then flattened. There were 3200 deaths in a country of 1.5 BILLION.
In the US that would extrapolate to about 700 deaths total. This season there have been an estimated 23,000 deaths from the seasonal flu according to the CDC.
There is no basis for the claim that corona will be more deadly than the flu.
Our current situation is that foot race between exponentiality and seasonality. Fortunately, our curve started later, magnifying seasonality. The primary indicator of the beginning of the end will be when the number of daily deaths declines. That will be the beginning of the flattening of the curve, signalling that the number of infections is about to peak.
If we are not careful, we will do hundreds of billions of dollars of economic damage unnecessarily.
Please keep informed and distribute accurate information to those you know.
And thanks to Gateway Pundit for their efforts to provide that information.