Guest post by Joe Hoft
We know that the Simpson and Steele dossier was paid for by the Hillary team and used as the only basis to spy on candidate and then President Donald Trump. None of the dossier could be confirmed by Steele. Now a lengthy analysis of the dossier proves that it was written by multiple individuals and contains many lies.
Another Internet sleuth has come to the rescue. An article on the net entitled “The Mechanics of Deception” outlines a length list of observations within a masterpiece of analysis on the fake dossier that impacted our country so greatly these past few years. The following observations are taken from this March 2018 post.
Fusion GPS and Orbis’s Computer and Communications Systems Were Needlessly Sophisticated
In 2016, Fusion GPS [Simpson’s Firm] and Orbis [Steele’s Firm] had a pretty sophisticated computer and a communications network, far beyond what one would expect to find in large law firm or even a bank. They spent a lot of time and money setting up a DoD 8570 and NIST SP 800-37, 39, 53, 53A grade environment, which included among other things:
- High-end security equipment like Cisco FirePOWER ASA appliances
- High-end networking equipment like Cisco Catalyst managed switches
- Multi-layered security and authentication using tokens and VPN
- Multiple subnetted segments
- Central configuration and patch management
- Policy based user ACL
- Development, test, and production environments
- An IDS
- An air-gapped file storage
The complexity of this network (see table below) and some of the artifacts found on it (such as the NISPOM manual) suggests that this was due to some external mandate rather than by choice. Considering the fact that Fusion GPS was not a regulated service provider, it begs the question of who was responsible for such a directive.
[This leads us to believe that Fusion and Orbis were mandated to include these super precautionary tactics to meet the needs of US government Intel agencies which leads us to believe that they were agencies that were provided data from US Intel illegally.]
Steele’s Sources Are Equivalent of Intel Agency which is Very Unlikely
According to the dossier, it is sourced from about 34 valuable, trusted, and highly placed assets such as:
- A senior Russian Foreign Ministry figure
- A former top Russian intelligence officer
- Several knowledgeable FSB sources
- A trusted compatriot (there are references to at least 5 of these)
- A former top level Russian intelligence officer who is still active inside the Kremlin
- A senior Russian financial official
- A close associate of Trump
- Source E (redacted)
- A female staffer at the Ritz Carlton hotel
- An ethnic Russian operative connected to the Ritz Carlton hotel
- A senior Kremlin official
- A Russian IT specialist with direct knowledge of FSB operations
- A senior Russian government figure
- An ethnic Russian who is a close associate of Trump
- A separate source with direct knowledge of Trump’s investment in Russia
- A Russian source close to Rosneft President
- An official close to Presidential Administration Head Sergei Ivanov
- A Kremlin official close to Sergei IVANOV
- A trusted associate of a Russian émigré
- Two well-placed and established Kremlin sources
- A source close to premier Dmitriy Medvedev
- A close colleague (of Steele)
- A Kremlin official involved in US relations
- A Kremlin insider
- A Kremlin advisor
- A well-placed Russian figure
- An American political figure associated with TRUMP
- A senior member of the Russian Presidential Administration (PA)
- A senior Russian MFA official
- Top level Russian official
- Two knowledgeable St Petersburg sources
- A senior Russian leadership figure
- A Russian Foreign Ministry official
- Igor Sechin’s close associate
If this list of assets is genuine and so is the chain of acquisition, then Steele somehow succeeded in building a collection network in Russia that rivals any national intelligence agency. This is a pretty impressive feat for someone who left Russia in 1993 and had his cover blown in 1999.
Finding one highly placed and reliable Russian source with access to such explosive materials would be considered the equivalent of winning a multi-million dollar lottery. To have thirty four such sources is virtually impossible.
Steele Hadn’t Been to Russia in 17 Years –
Simpson, Steele’s handler, was asked by Congressman Trey Gowdy during the House Intelligence Committee’s November 14 Hearing, (see excerpt below), if Steele had gone “to Russia as part of this project,” to which Simpson replied: “No, sir” at the time he compiled the dossier, Steele hadn’t been back to Russia in 17 years. Gowdy then asked him:
Gowdy: “How was he able to accumulate information in Russia if he didn’t go?”
Simpson: “… and generally, you have a network of sources who live in or came from the place that you’re interested in. So, you know, generally speaking, you would have –you would run a network of sub-sources or subcontractors who travel around and gather information for you. And so without getting into who his sources are, I can say generally, he hires people who can travel and talk to people and find out what’s going on”.
Steele Believes He Should be Believed –
On the possibility that he was just fed a steady diet of dezinformatsiya, according to Steele’s own words that was unlikely because:
“Disinformation is an issue in my profession, it is a central concern, and we are trained to spot disinformation, and if I believed this [the dossier] was disinformation, or I had concerns about that, I would tell you [Fusion GPS] that. And I’m not telling you that. I’m telling you that I don’t believe this [the dossier] is disinformation.”
So what Steele is saying here is essentially: ‘I am a wise old British gentleman spy, I was trained at the Hogwarts School of spy Wizardry, and you can trust everything I’m telling you. Now, BEGONE!’
This is laughable! Vetting sources is a critical part of the evaluation and reliability of intelligence. It’s such an essential part of the craft that no decisions about the information can be made without it. Given the poor quality of his raw intelligence, Steele’s lack of concern for the possibility that he was being fed disinformation is alarming.
The Circle of lies –
In intelligence analysis, there is a concept of a runaway feedback loop that occurs when information becomes re-iterated and rewarded in perpetual cycles. For example, “Analyst A” releases a bit of dubious intel. “Analyst B” reads the claim and puts it in his report. “Analyst A” reads the intel in Analyst B’s report and decides that his intel may actually be true. “Analyst C” picks up “Analyst A’s” and “Analyst B’s” reports and expands on it creatively. “Analyst A” and “Analyst B” now are certain that their original piece was accurate. Actually, none of it is accurate. The same applies to many of Steele’s briefs; they progressively build upon previous dubious intel using terms like “Continuing on this theme”.
Systemic Writing Style – Who wrote the report?
Once I had a good baseline and a stylistic fingerprint, I proceeded to analyze the individual reports. From the sample below, we can see that despite Steele’s claim that he wrote the document, (images below), it is almost certain that it was written by another person(s), likely a foreign source, possibly Baumgartner, or Ohr. The writing style fits their writer profile in multiple categories.
There are, however, a few anomalies in the data (see last image) that indicate that some of the content—especially the latter reports that are written in an American English and have ‘talking point’ style—have been written by another unidentified author(s).
The post goes on to identify multiple anomalies with the dossier and those related to it.
