Photo via TGP contributor Kristinn Taylor
FLORIDA NUMBERS LOOK EXCELLENT…
According to early voting (EV) and absentee ballot voting (VBM) Republicans are looking strong in battleground state Florida.
Via Election experts Au Ng and Michael Newton:
FL EV update 7:30 am, 11/6/18 (ED) — I'm pleasantly surprised. D lead has actually gone down by 2k to 22353. 2 days ago i conservatively said it might reach 30k. The reason for this is very reassuring for Rs, which is VBM actually improved since yesterday, contd…..
— au ng (@athein1) November 6, 2018
contd. In '16, presumably due to VBMs, Ds gained 8.4k on the last day. VBM actually netted 449 for Rs since yest. This is similar to the overall trend where Rs outperforming '16 by 50-70k on each day of EV. It ends with an exclamation point of 74k better for R since '16. contd
— au ng (@athein1) November 6, 2018
contd — In terms of percentages, Rs are at 82.44% of '16 EV whild Ds at 80.26. All this improvement, I believe, is suggestive of enthusiasm advantage for Rs, opposite of what MSM has been claiming and wishing. Rs must GO VOTE and I'm sure they will. Chalk FL up for an R win pic.twitter.com/KIQbjZy3E8
— au ng (@athein1) November 6, 2018
If this trend holds, I'm not even worried about @RonDeSantisFL anymore. And I'm more confident that tonight will be almost as sweet as '16. Let's add 7 Senate seats and keep house!!!
— au ng (@athein1) November 6, 2018
One interesting about the 2 curves I've been comparing. These curves are strikingly similar suggesting '18 is very much like '16. With 2 small exceptions. You see R humps at days 6-3 and Day 0. Rs outperforming their expectations even comp. to '16. Rs will win FL. pic.twitter.com/YL6Na7Epbm
— au ng (@athein1) November 6, 2018