Guest post by Joe Hoft
We reported last week that early ballots show a huge increase in voting in favor of Republicans.
It looks like our prediction continues to hold up!
On June 23, 2018, we reported that the 2018 Mid-terms would be a referendum on government corruption and because of this President Trump and the Republicans would win big.
This was before Democrats made up trumped up charges against a good man – Supreme Court Judge Brett Kavanaugh.
After the Kavanaugh hearings, where Judge Kavanaugh was wrongfully accused by the Democrats of being a gang rapist, the tide changed. We made our prediction on the election and we stated that a huge red wave was coming. Our mid-term prediction on October 2nd was that the Republicans would win big in the Senate and would keep the House.
Early voting continues to indicate that the tide is turning red! Democrats are showing less than their 2016 early returns which is expected. The bigger news is that Republicans are ahead of their 2016 early ballot pace!
In a series of tweets Larry Schweikart showed last week that early returns are shockingly strong for Republicans.
Larry explained that he examines ballot requests and ballot returns by party and in 2016 party ID was the single best predictor of a vote according to Pew [Research] and that party switchers in 2016 were 2 to 1 in favor of Democrats voting Republican:
6) I examine ballot REQUESTS and ballot RETURNS BY PARTY. (In 2016, party ID was the single best predictor of a vote according to Pew—very, very few party switchers, but those that were, by 2:1, went from Dem to Republican.
— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) October 18, 2018
So Larry compared last week’s numbers to 2016. In four states where there are already a large number of ballot requests (Arizona, Florida, Ohio and Iowa) so far Republicans are exceeding 2016 numbers:
In four sample states where we are already seeing large numbers of ballot requests—AZ, FL, OH, and IA—and which have very different voting patterns, Larry found that so far the Republicans are exceeding their numbers.
8) So, in four sample states where we are already seeing large #s of ballot requests—AZ, FL, OH, and IA—and which have very different voting patterns, I have found that so far (and anything can change—but usually the patterns hold) the Republicans are exceeding their #s
— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) October 18, 2018
— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) October 18, 2018
Results last week were very good for Republicans –
8) contd . . . from 2016, a Presidential Election. This is not supposed to happen.
9) Moreover, with the help of Freepers “Ravi” and “SpeedyInTexas” and “Ohio Wan” and “The Accountant” and others, I have found that DemoKKKrats are falling behind their 2016 performance
— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) October 18, 2018
Last week Democrats were behind 2016 Presidential year numbers and Republicans were ahead – this is not supposed to happen –
10) One would not be surprised that Ds are lagging behind 2016, a presidential election year. But it IS surprising that Rs are not only running ahead of 2014 (a midterm) but also 2016.
11) Just in case there was some weird state-wide tilt to these numbers, we also . . . .
— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) October 18, 2018
Schweitkart continues to show country wide data where Republicans are way ahead of 2016 –
FL:
10/23/2016 combined early and absentee votes:
Rs lead 6,975
10/23/18:
R lead 53,745Rs outperforming 2016 by 47k . . . and red Panhandle voting down 2/3 from 2016 so far. It WILL come in, or most of it, on election day.
— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) October 23, 2018
Last night NBC released similar data showing Republican turnout so far is greatly outpacing Dem’s –
According to NBC News…early voting so far
ARIZONA
🔴44%
🔵33%FLORIDA
🔴44%
🔵38%GEORGIA
🔴52%
🔵43%INDIANA
🔴51%
🔵38%MONTANA
🔴48%
🔵29%NEVADA
🔴38%
🔵45%TENNESSEE
🔴63%
🔵30%TEXAS
🔴53%
🔵43%🔴 Keep voting Red! 🔴
🇺🇸Take a friend! 🇺🇸— Midterm❤️Molly⭐️⭐️⭐️ (@mollyday15) October 23, 2018
Time will tell tell but it is beginning to look like a giant red wave is coming in November.
Featured image via Tina Toons
