Guest post by Joe Hoft
As the Presidential election of 2016 approached, we made a prediction on the election. We predicted a huge Trump victory. We were right. Today we are announcing our prediction on the 2018 mid-term election. We are confident with our prediction.
Election 2016
As November 8th, 2016 approached, we predicted a Trump victory. We based our prediction on analysis and observations and we were correct. We beat all of the #NeverTrump naysayers and liberal media hacks.
We started our 2016 Presidential Election prediction with a reminder on our earlier predictions from the primaries. On April 2nd of 2016 we predicted that Ted Cruz would be mathematically eliminated from the Republican race for President on April 27th because on that day he would need more delegates than would be available. We also predicted that on April 27th Donald Trump would accumulate 943 delegates which would put him well on track to win the Republican nomination.
April 27th came and Ted Cruz was eliminated and Trump had amassed 944 delegates (which later was updated to 950 delegates). We were 100% correct and our reporting made the headlines at the Drudge report!
We based our prediction on the 2016 Presidential campaign on various analysis and observations.
Trump won big in the 2016 primaries
In 2016 Republicans crushed their previous record in the primaries for number of votes by 150% . Their old record was 20 million and this year 31 million voted in the primaries. The Democrats on the other hand had 7 million votes less than their record year in 2008 with 30 million compared to 37 million in 2008. Donald Trump also SHATTERED the GOP primary record by 1.4 million votes in a field of 17 candidates.
Many of the 2016 polls were biased
In late October 2016 a number of polls showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by various margins. One poll reported by NBC/WSJ showed Hillary ahead by 11. However, it was never pointed out that the poll was created by a Hillary Super PAC.
Also, it’s also well known that the widely reported Monmouth University poll was run by a Hillary Huckster who was caught manipulating the poll and then lied about it.
Realclearpolitics.com took an average of these distorted polls to come up with their analysis of the 2016 race. Their efforts were a great example of the phrase – ‘garbage in – garbage out’.
Many if not all of the polls included samples that were heavily skewed towards Democrats or women. WikiLeaks released Clinton emails showing the Democrat Party efforts to work with pollsters to corrupt the polls and discourage Trump supporters.
Rallies Showed Massive Excitement for Trump and None for Hillary
We kept track of the number of participants at both Trump and Hillary rallies after the conventions in July 2016. Since August 1stTrump crushed Hillary in these events. Trump rallies accumulated more than 710,000 in August through October while Hillary’s only 60,000. These numbers were so huge they could not be ignored!
Social Media
Social media numbers for Trump heavily outpace Clinton.
The Bernie Factor
Ask any Democrat who supported Bernie Sanders whether they would vote for Hillary. The answer was ‘no’. A significant number of Bernie fans hated Hillary Clinton for the super delegates she was awarded to steal the election. Voters also questioned her for suspect primary wins and the WikiLeaks emails revealed how she slammed Bernie and cheated at every turn. The Bernie people knew that the media was biased.
Lawn Signs
Finally, we suggested that people look around. Everywhere you went you saw Trump signs. However, you could drive for miles and see no Hillary signs. The excitement for Hillary was just not there.
WE NAILED IT! Candidate Donald J. Trump won the election in an electoral landslide.
Election 2018
Here is our prediction for the mid-terms: Republicans will pick up at least 5 and possibly 6 or 7 or more seats in the Senate and Republicans will maintain leadership in the House. Below is our support for this prediction.
Social Media Data is No Longer Accurate or Transparent
We can no longer use social media as an indication for who will win the mid-term election or any election going forward. Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and Google have all made significant efforts to curtail and eliminate conservative content and publishers. Posts and articles shared on social media are no longer going viral due to liberal bias by the tech giants.
Last week — Jim Hoft, The Gateway Pundit Founder, spoke to Congress about the elimination of conservative content by Facebook.
Hoft provided evidence that Facebook eliminated 93% of combined referral traffic to top conservative websites from January 2017 to May 2018.
Because of this we now are forced to use other observations and data sources to support our prediction.
Polls are Still Flawed
As noted above, the 2016 polls were not accurate and this has not changed. Democrats continue to try and manipulate people through polls. They just don’t get it that Americans can now, thanks to President Trump, see through the liberal antics. The polls for this year’s election are local and are even more skewed due to smaller population sizes. We base very little credence on the polls except in cases when the Republicans are in the lead. In these cases it is highly likely that the Republican will win due to the polls already being skewed towards the left.
Historical House Changes Skewed by Clinton and Obama
The Mainstream Media (MSM) has been harping for months that there is going to be a “blue wave” this year because this is the pattern after a President and his Party win a national election and the House. However, this is not the total truth.
According to one report, Republicans do much better than Democrats in the midterm elections in this scenario going back to WWII –
On average, Democrat presidents lose 35.2 seats in the House. Republican presidents only lose 11.2 seats in the House in their first midterm on average. Again, this is every president since WWII, so this is a very extensive analysis.
If this average holds true, the Republicans will hold the House. But we expect that the results of the midterms for the House will be much better based on the items below.
Trump Rallies Show More Excitement than Ever Before!
President Trump continues to hold rallies and they are bigger than ever! On Monday at his rally in Tennessee the crowd was massive. Thousands waited to get in the rally five and a half hours before the rally started. –
5.5 hours before President Trump is set to speak in Johnson City, the line to get in the auditorium is thousands of people long. Doors haven’t opened yet pic.twitter.com/38ZodXUWxg
— Marc Sallinger (@MarcWBIR) October 1, 2018
The turnout at Trump rallies is huge! There is more excitement at these rallies than even before the 2016 election! This is huge and relevant.
The Senate is a different story. Up to ten Democrat Senators up for election could very possibly be removed from office in this election. The net gain for Republicans in the Senate will be at least five Senators but more probably more due to so many of these races being in red states that President Trump won handily.
Trump Keeping Promises
The reason that the Trump rallies are so exciting and crowded is in part because President Donald J. Trump is keeping his promises. In early 2018 the Heritage Foundation rated President Trump’s first year better than President Reagan’s and we reported this and it was linked to by the Drudge Report.
President Trump is simply doing what he promised. This is why the stock market is at all-time highs, American’s 401k’s are increasing by the day, the GDP is at an all-time high, the Debt to GDP ratio is declining, ISIS is wiped out of Syria and Iraq, North Korea is working on denuclearization, the US is out of the terrible climate deal, the US is out of the terrible Iran deal, and on and on.
Yesterday, the President announced that he has replaced NAFTA with a new trade agreement with Mexico and Canada that will be good for the US and all involved. Another promise kept –
The Media is Corrupt and Now Thanks to the President More Americans Understand this
The media does not have a hold over the American people like it once did thanks to President Trump. More people are looking past, over and around the MSM and relying on other sources like The Gateway Pundit for accurate information. Despite the socials’ efforts to destroy the conservative message, Americans are finding their news elsewhere.
The more the President speaks out about the “Fake News” media, the more the MSM digs in and promotes dishonest and unsubstantiated stories about the President while ignoring his successes, and the more Americans see the MSM for what it is. Americans simply refuse to believe the MSM’s negative news on President Trump. CNN, for example, is at abysmal low viewership due to its continuing promotion of “Fake News”. Ultimately, the MSM is digging its own grave.
The Brett Kavanaugh Effect
Can you imagine how great this country would be if we had two parties vying for power and competing for votes by promoting and implementing better and better ideas for the United States? This sadly is not the case.
President Trump implements ideas and actions to make America better. Democrats do the opposite.
The Democrats entire platform was to attack Trump and anyone near him and attempt to prevent any policy that the President has to help the American people. Democrats all voted against tax cuts for Americans. Democrats in the Senate nearly all voted against Supreme Court Judge Gorsuch. Only after it was clear that Gorsuch would win his nomination, did three Democrats vote for the Judge.
Democrats complain, delay, obstruct and lie about what the President is doing to make America great again.
But what the Democrats are doing to smear and bear false witness against Judge Brett Kavanaugh is possibly their worst attack to date.
Every American should watch Judge Kavanaugh’s opening statement from his testimony last week in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee. In his speech he showed his disgust against Democrat smears. He wept for his family and his name while vowing never to give up.
Senator Lindsey Graham from South Carolina made America proud when he stood up for the good Judge Kavanaugh whose integrity was being crucified by the Democrats and their MSM –
When Judge Kavanaugh told the story about how his ten-year-old daughter had suggested that the family pray for his accusers, it was clear that the Kavanaughs are good people, the salt of the earth, Godly and good Americans.
No one could walk away from that hearing and not know what a national treasure Judge Kavanaugh and his family are. The Judge was top in his class at Yale, a DC Circuit Court judge for a decade with a clean bill of health, and then suddenly the Democrats and the MSM promoted last minute smears of him being a “gang-rapist”, a drunk and sexual deviant related to unsubstantiated stories more than three decades ago.
The accusations against Kavanaugh are as disgusting as they get.
Meanwhile, the Democrats continue to praise the unconstitutional Mueller Special Counsel while promoting the many false targeting leaks from the Deep State against the candidate and then President.
Americans have had enough. If the MSM and Democrats believe that Americans are on their side regarding the Kavanaugh “scam” and Mueller “witch hunt” they are gravely mistaken.
Americans see right through these scandals, smears, lies and criminal acts.
The mid-terms will not be a “blue wave”, not even close.
Responsible conservatives will vote in more Republicans nationally. There is nothing more that the Democrats and their liberal media can send at the President that we won’t see through. Any efforts on their part, like the Judge Kavanaugh crucifixion, will be seen for what it is. Democrat voter fraud is always a concern but Americans are good and will side with the imperfect man and our great President, Donald J. Trump.
Americans will not allow our great President to be taken down. Americans will vote for Republicans and support President Trump.
Democrats overplayed their hate. November will be a Red Wave.
