Trump continues to draw huge crowds in rally after rally like this one in Miami on Wednesday (Mary Q.)
DONALD TRUMP has a 5 point lead over Hillary Clinton in the latest North Carolina poll.
Via Trafalgar Group—
A new North Carolina Presidential poll of likely voters was released today, showing Donald Trump widening his lead over Hillary Clinton. The Trafalgar Group (TFG), a national political consulting and public relations firm, conducted the poll October 27th through November 1st.
The presidential results show Donald Trump leading with 49.13% , Hillary Clinton 44.16% , Gary Johnson 3.59% , Jill Stein 0.49% , and 2.63% undecided. TFG surveyed 1,154 likely general election voters using a random sample of registered voters in North Carolina. The survey was stratified to reflect the election demographics in North Carolina. The margin of error is +/- 2.88.
Commenting on the survey, TFG Senior Strategist Robert Cahaly said, “It’s our belief that there is a significant “Brexit” type undercurrent of support for Trump that many polls are not capturing. We have been asking a second ballot test question to measure who survey takers believe most their neighbors will vote for. In our Ohio, Florida, and this North Carolina survey we find a consistent pattern of Clinton support dropping 5-6% while Trump support increases 4.5-5.5% for this question.
Cahaly continued, “We believe the most accurate measure of support for each candidate is somewhere between how people answer for themselves and answer on behalf of their neighbors.”
Cahaly concluded: “Lastly we have noted that there will likely be a major influx of participation from registered voters who haven’t voted since 2006 or before. This mobilization is reminiscent to the Obama turnout of 2008. These voters’ primary motivation is the rejection of the establishment, just as the Obama ’08 voters who rejected the establishment of that time.”
The Trafalgar Group conducted many of the most accurate GOP polls in the 2016 Primary, most notably South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida in the southeast, as well as Michigan, Ohio, Kansas, and Louisiana. For the 2016 General, TFG has released polls in Ohio and Florida. The results and information of these polls have been featured in numerous national news stories, television networks, and high-profile polling websites like Real Clear Politics.