Professor Helmut Norpoth from Stony Brook University told Lou Dobbs in August Donald Trump has an 87% chance of winning the November presidential election.
Professor Norpoth is a political science professor at Long Island’s Stony Brook University.
His model has been correct since 1996 on predicting the popular vote.
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This 2016 forecast rests on a model that tracks cyclical movements in American presidential elections. It goes back to 1828, when popular voting became widespread and the two-party system took hold. Over nearly two centuries, American presidential elections have exhibited a distinct cycle. This is not the pattern associated with partisan realignments that may last 30 years or so, but a shorter cycle that relates to party control of the White House.
Norpoth made the prediction in March and says he still stands by his election prediction today.
Norpoth added that Donald Trump will win by 5 percentage points.
That’s a landslide folks!