Hillary leads in new poll that over-samples Democrats and under-samples Independents
Media Relations GWU reported:
Hillary Clinton is beginning to pull away from Donald Trump in the presidential race, according to the latest George Washington University Battleground Poll. Almost half (47 percent) of likely voters surveyed chose the Democratic candidate while only 39 percent chose the Republican nominee. Clinton gained 5 percentage points since the previous GW Battleground Poll in early September, while Trump lost 1. Third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein collectively lost 3 points, polling at 8 and 2 percent respectively. Four percent of the likely voters polled were still undecided.
The poll was conducted Oct. 8-13, after a tape of Trump from “Access Hollywood” came to light, and spanned the second presidential debate. Amid those campaign milestones, the GW Battleground Poll found a clear majority of voters (62 percent) think Clinton will win, while less than a third (27 percent) believe Trump will take the presidency.
Now here is a look at the poll’s dynamics:
Question d4:
IF REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT,
Republican/strong…………………………………………….22%
Republican/not strong ………………………………………..9%
Lean Republican………………………………………………..9%
Independent …………………………………………………….15%
Lean Democrat …………………………………………………. 8%
Democrat/not strong…………………………………………..9%
Democrat/strong ………………………………………………27%
NO PREFERENCE (DNR) ………………………………..1%So, let’s add those up:
Rep – 40
Ind – 15
Dem – 44
Independents generally favor Trump and should be at least 30% of the sample. By minimizing independents, you lower Trumps rating. Not to mention, Dems were oversampled again and this poll started its survey on 10/8 so it’s old news.
