Professor Helmut Norpoth from Stony Brook University today told Lou Dobbs Donald Trump has an 87% chance of winning the November presidential election.
Professor Norpoth is a political science professor at Long Island’s Stoney Brook University.
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His model has been correct since 1996 on predicting the popular vote.
This 2016 forecast rests on a model that tracks cyclical movements in American presidential elections. It goes back to 1828, when popular voting became widespread and the two-party system took hold. Over nearly two centuries, American presidential elections have exhibited a distinct cycle. This is not the pattern associated with partisan realignments that may last 30 years or so, but a shorter cycle that relates to party control of the White House.
Norpoth made the prediction in March and says he still stands by his election prediction.