The Latest PPP survey has Trump and Cruz locked in a dead heat in Wisconsin – a state Ted Cruz desperately needs to win to stay relevant.
Cruz has 38% of the vote to 37% for Donald Trump.
Wisconsin has an open primary which should help Donald Trump as he typically makes gains with independents and Democrat voters.
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A new Public Policy Polling survey in Wisconsin, conducted on behalf of VoteVets Action Fund, finds Bernie Sanders as the favorite in the state’s Democratic primary. Sanders leads Hillary Clinton 49-43, with 8% of voters still undecided. Clinton leads among actual Democratic voters in the state, 50-42. But Sanders has an overwhelming advantage with independents at 62/31, and that gives him the overall advantage in this open primary. Sanders is strong with voters under 45 (a 65/28 lead), those who identify as ‘very liberal’ (59/37), and men (56/39). The only group Clinton has a substantial lead with is seniors, at 63/30.
The Republican race is close, with Ted Cruz at 38% to 37% for Donald Trump and 17% for John Kasich. There are indications within the numbers that Cruz could win a wider victory though. In a head to head match up with Trump he leads 49/41. That’s because Kasich voters prefer him over Trump by a 51/19 spread. Only 63% of Kasich voters say they’re definitely going to vote for him (Cruz and Trump are both over 80% on that metric), so if his supporters end up moving to one of the top two it could mean a wider Cruz victory.
GOP voters in Wisconsin have positive views of both Kasich (52/30) and Cruz (50/36). Trump is on negative ground, with only 45% of voters seeing him favorably to 48% who have an unfavorable opinion of him. In an unusual twist Cruz voters (83% ) are more solidly committed to their candidate than Trump voters (81% ) are. This is the first poll we’ve ever done where we didn’t Trump with the most locked in base of support. Cruz is being fueled by a 53/32 advantage among voters who identify themselves as ‘very conservative.’ Cruz also leads with women (39/32) by a margin wide enough to overcome the one Trump has with men (40/36).