NEW WISCONSIN POLL: Cruz, Donald Trump in Dead Heat

trump cruz 2

The Latest PPP survey has Trump and Cruz locked in a dead heat in Wisconsin – a state Ted Cruz desperately needs to win to stay relevant.

Cruz has 38% of the vote to 37% for Donald Trump.

Wisconsin has an open primary which should help Donald Trump as he typically makes gains with independents and Democrat voters.

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Wisconsin, conducted on behalf of VoteVets Action Fund, finds Bernie Sanders as the favorite in the state’s Democratic primary. Sanders leads Hillary Clinton 49-43, with 8% of voters still undecided. Clinton leads among actual Democratic voters in the state, 50-42. But Sanders has an overwhelming advantage with independents at 62/31, and that gives him the overall advantage in this open primary. Sanders is strong with voters under 45 (a 65/28 lead), those who identify as ‘very liberal’ (59/37), and men (56/39). The only group Clinton has a substantial lead with is seniors, at 63/30.

The Republican race is close, with Ted Cruz at 38% to 37% for Donald Trump and 17% for John Kasich. There are indications within the numbers that Cruz could win a wider victory though. In a head to head match up with Trump he leads 49/41. That’s because Kasich voters prefer him over Trump by a 51/19 spread. Only 63% of Kasich voters say they’re definitely going to vote for him (Cruz and Trump are both over 80% on that metric), so if his supporters end up moving to one of the top two it could mean a wider Cruz victory.

GOP voters in Wisconsin have positive views of both Kasich (52/30) and Cruz (50/36). Trump is on negative ground, with only 45% of voters seeing him favorably to 48% who have an unfavorable opinion of him. In an unusual twist Cruz voters (83% ) are more solidly committed to their candidate than Trump voters (81% ) are. This is the first poll we’ve ever done where we didn’t Trump with the most locked in base of support. Cruz is being fueled by a 53/32 advantage among voters who identify themselves as ‘very conservative.’ Cruz also leads with women (39/32) by a margin wide enough to overcome the one Trump has with men (40/36).

Comments

As a privately owned web site, we reserve the right to edit or remove comments that contain spam, advertising, vulgarity, threats of violence, racism, anti-Semitism, or personal/abusive attacks on other users. The same applies to trolling, the use of multiple aliases, or just generally being a jerk. Enforcement of this policy is at the sole discretion of the site administrators and repeat offenders may be blocked or permanently banned without warning. Guest posting is disabled for security reasons.