Super-Shocker— Two Polls Show Massachusetts Senate Race as Toss Up – Scott Brown Surging (Updated)

Surging Republican Scott Brown told Sean Hannity last night that he will vote against Obamacare:

Now check this out…
Public Policy Polling reported today that the Massachusetts Senate race is now a toss up.

Buoyed by a huge advantage with independents and relative disinterest from Democratic voters in the state, Republican Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley 48-47.

Here are the major factors leading to this surprising state of affairs:

-As was the case in the Gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia last year, it looks like the electorate in Massachusetts will be considerably more conservative than the one that showed up in 2008. Obama took the state by 26 points then, but those planning to vote next week only report having voted for him by 16.

-Republicans are considerably more enthusiastic about turning out to vote than Democrats are. 66% of GOP voters say they are ‘very excited’ about casting their votes, while only 48% of Democrats express that sentiment- and that’s among the Democrats who are planning to vote in contrast to the many who are apparently not planning to do so at this point.

-Brown has eye popping numbers with independents, sporting a 70/16 favorability rating with them and holding a 63-31 lead in the horse race with Coakley. Health care may be hurting Democratic fortunes with that group, as only 27% of independents express support for Obama’s plan with 59% opposed.

Also, there are reports that the Boston Herald’s poll that will be released tomorrow shows Coakley leading Brown by only 1 point among likely voters.
Toss up.

William Jacobson reported from the Brown headquarters today.


** You can contribute to Scott Brown’s campaign here

UPDATE: Liberal corporate lobbying firms are lining up to help bail out Coakley’s campaign.

UPDATE: Jules Crittenden says their is no Boston Herald poll that shows Brown within one of Coakley.

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