Only 103 of 435 House Seats Now Safe For Dems In 2010 Election
Team Pelosi better turn the corner quick or November will be a slaughter for radical majority in Washington. Michael Barone is reporting at The Washington Examiner that only 103 of 235 House seats are now safe for democrats.
Republican Scott Brown won 52%-47% in Massachusetts, which voted 62%-36% for Barack Obama in 2008. How did he do in each of Massachusetts’s 10 congressional districts, all of which are represented by Democrats who have been reelected without much opposition this decade? Blogger Fred Bauer has attempted to calculate the results, omitting results in cities or towns which are split between congressional districts. Bauer shows Coakley winning 80%-20% in Michael Capuano’s 8th district (which voted 84% for Obama), 54%-46% in Ed Markey’s 7th district (65% Obama) and 51%-49% in John Olver’s western Mass 1st district (64% Obama). He shows Coakley narrowly trailing in Barney Frank’s 4th district (63% Obama), where I think the Fall River precincts he didn’t count would have put Coakley narrowly ahead, and in Stephen Lynch’s 9th district (60% Obama) he shows her well behind but doesn’t include the Boston wards and precincts which may have put her ahead, although I rather doubt it.
Anyway, there’s a pattern here: Coakley carries districts where Obama got 65% or more of the vote and runs essentially even in the district where he got 64%, and Scott Brown runs ahead in districts where Obama got less than 64% of the vote.
Let’s extrapolate those numbers to the nation as a whole and assume that a district that voted 64% or more for Obama is safe for Democrats even under the most dire of circumstances. How many such districts are there? Answer, according to this source: 103. The other 332 districts voted 63% or less for Obama. Interestingly, there are more 64%+ Obama districts in the West (36) than in the East (27) and more in the South (21) than in the Midwest (19).