WHOA! Hillary Clinton Trails Trump by 30 POINTS With White Males in Swing States
Democrat Hillary Clinton was virtually tied with Republican Donald Trump in a Quinnipiac poll of swing state voters last week.
But the results were worse than expected…
Hillary Clinton trails Donald Trump with white men by 30 points in swing states Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
The election is nearly six months from now. And yes, it’s risky to place too much weight on any one poll. But the just-released Quinnipiac survey of three key swing states—Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio—challenges complacent assumptions and suggests that the election will be closely contested.
The conventional wisdom is that Donald Trump is massively unpopular among women and minorities. The Quinnipiac poll indicates that this is true. The presumptive Republican presidential nominee trails Hillary Clinton among non-white voters by 43 points in Florida, 60 points in Pennsylvania, and 62 points in Ohio. Mrs. Clinton leads among women by 13 points in Florida, 19 points in Pennsylvania, and 7 points in Ohio.
These findings are consistent with another piece of conventional wisdom—that Mrs. Clinton will comfortably defeat Mr. Trump this November. Unfortunately for her, that’s not what the survey finds. The two candidates are essentially tied in Florida and Pennsylvania; in Ohio, the New York billionaire holds a small 43-39 lead. It looks like a tough fight.
What’s going on?
In the first place, Mr. Trump enjoys a sizeable lead among white voters in all three states: 19 points in Florida, 11 points in Pennsylvania, and 17 points in Ohio. Not surprisingly, his edge among white men is even larger: 36 points in Florida, 32 in Pennsylvania, 29 in Ohio. Within the white electorate, gender matters. Mrs. Clinton does 15 points better among white women than men in Florida and 17 points in Pennsylvania, but notably, only 7 points better in Ohio, which helps explain why her overall standing among women is lower there than elsewhere.