Several polls have been released this week as the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary nears.
The Zogby poll released Monday shows leading Republican presidential Donald Trump tied with leading Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton at 45% –but beating Clinton in key demographics traditionally won by Democrats.
Pollster John Zogby wrote about the poll in Forbes:
“Trump is ahead among Catholics – a group that Democrats have won every election since 1992. He also draws an impressive 66% support among evangelicals (to Clinton’s 25%). He also leads among NASCAR Fans (48%-42%), Investor Class voters (49%-44%) and Weekly Wal-Mart Shoppers (50%-42%) – a group President Barack Obama won twice. Trump even is drawing 37% of union households (to Clinton’s 56%).”
The Pew Research Center reported in 2012 on voting patterns by religion. President Barack Obama won Catholics in 2008, 54% to 45% and in 2012, 50% to 48%.
Pew shows President George W. Bush lost the Catholic vote in 2000 47% to 50% but won it in 2004 52% to 47%.
Zogby did not provide a breakdown of the Catholic support for Trump and Clinton.
Zogby also broke down the Trump-Clinton vote by race/ethnicity:
“Clinton relies on both Hispanic voters (58%-33%) and African American voters (77%-12%) to offset her deficit with white voters (Trump leads 53%-36%). The result showing that 11% of African American voters are undecided is not good news for Clinton. If they do not know her and like her now, they may not even show up to vote at all. And in a race potentially this close, she will need them.”
Trump is doing better against Clinton than 2012 GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney did against Obama with minorities, based on exit polling reported by CNN.
“According to CNN exit polls, 93% of African-Americans, 71% of Hispanics and 73% of Asians supported Obama over Romney.”
Pew reported Romney got 27% of the Hispanic vote in 2012, meaning Trump is polling better than Romney among Hispanic voters by six percentage points (and two points better than John McCain’s 31% in 2008). Trump’s 12% of the Black vote doubles Romney’s 6% and slightly better than Bush’s 11% in 2004.
Both Trump and Clinton are under performing among white voters compared to 2012. Trump at 53% is down six points from Romney’s 59% while Clinton at 36% is down three points from Obama’s 39%.
Overall, Trump performing this well so early in the election among key Democratic Party demographics bodes ill for Clinton and the Democrats.