Obama Likely to Get Thumped in 2012 If Current Trend Continues
Posted by Jim Hoft on Friday, November 26, 2010, 8:47 AM
If the present trend continues, the country will be saved from Barack Obama in 2012.
Obama has lost ground among all groups except those with graduate degrees. Go figure.
Byron York at The Washington Examiner reported:
We’re fast approaching the halfway point in Barack Obama’s term. With Nov. 2 behind him, everything the president does will be calculated to boost, or at least not harm, his chances of re-election in 2012. What’s not clear is whether he fully appreciates how badly the coalition he led to victory in 2008 has frayed in just two years. A look inside his poll numbers suggests that if he cannot turn around some key trends, he’ll be a one-term president.
Just look at the exit polls from 2008, which reveal the demographic contours of Obama’s support. Compare those with Gallup’s weekly analysis of the president’s approval rating, drawn from multiple polls broken down by age, gender, political philosophy, and the like. Throw in some insights from the midterm elections, and the mix shows a dramatic deterioration in Obama’s 2008 support. “His majority coalition is not there,” says Republican pollster David Winston. “What he put together, at least in the way he put it together, just isn’t there.”
Start with voters who call themselves independents. Obama won 52 percent of them in 2008; now, according to Gallup, he is at 42 percent. Obama’s party as a whole fared even worse among independents in the midterms, losing them to Republicans by 19 points. If Obama does anywhere near that badly in 2012, he’ll lose.
Next, women. In 2008, Obama won 56 percent of female voters. Today, he’s at 49 percent. If that number doesn’t improve, he’ll be in deep trouble. (Obama is also down with men, from 49 percent in 2008 to 44 percent now.)
Even younger voters, a key part of Obama’s coalition, are peeling away. In ’08, Obama won 66 percent of voters 18-29 years of age. Now, he’s at 58 percent. That might seem pretty good, but not when you consider his deterioration among other age groups. Obama has dropped 5 percentage points among voters in and around middle age, and 8 percent with voters above 65. If those trends continue, he’ll lose.
Then there are white voters. In ’08, Obama won 43 percent of whites. Now, he’s at 37 percent — a dangerously low number for his re-election hopes. He won 67 percent of Hispanic voters in 2008; now, he’s at 58 percent. Even support among black voters, a bedrock for Obama, has ticked downward; after winning 95 percent of blacks in ’08, he’s now at 89 percent.
Just one group has stuck with Obama through it all. In ’08, he won 58 percent of people with graduate degrees. Now, he’s at 59 percent.
Related… 11 statististics that show just how far the US economy has fallen over the last four years.
ADVERTISEMENT
-
Featured Story:
Rev. Jeremiah Wright: Barack Obama Has Done Nothing For Black Community (Video)
Published May 16, 2012 at 7:37 pm - 46 Comments
Gary Gross commented:
Not only doesn’t the Democrats’ economic math add up but their election explanation doesn’t either.
Multitude commented:
Passing the DREAM Act will only further seal the deal, not just for Obama but for anyone of the party. The several million voters gained in currently illegal “residents” will readily be offset by the complete party flight of the middle class. As soon as taxpaying middle-class citizens discover the combined effect of dollar devaluation, inflation and doubled tuition rates (necessarily radically increased to pay both for in-state tuition for a flood of illegals, as well as offsetting major reductions in state subsidies), they’re likely to be rabidly upset given they won’t be able to afford sending their kids to college (while illegals get government assistance).
Oh by the way, remember that nationalization of college loans this last year? The legislation that got little attention by the media and was generally ignored by the middle class? That Center for American Progress (Soros) driven student loan “reform” was instrumental in giving the Federal government full control over who will be able to attend school and who will be working in the quarry. Middle class America, it’s not looking good for your children and grandchildren. But then again, you did vote for these progressives in spite of sufficient warning.
bg commented:
++
OT: WE WERE WARNED BY MANY..
Iran, North Korea, Cuba teach U.S. human rights
WE DID NOT LISTEN WE’RE NOT LISTENING STILL..
==
bigL commented:
Forget it .He is a lock for re-election. That is why I think the GOP and Conservatives should focus on the Senate and gettingsome great governors, partic some black govs-conservatives in the state houses.
The blacks, the Jews, many old people will all vote against their own interests,the California-schizo syndrome.
All my union friends, will vote for him,All the teachers laid off or not will vote en masse for him.
Fed,state,local emps will vote for him. And that is millions and millions of votes. Plus the GOP
won’t know who we are permitted as our candidate untill the Donk/lefty crossover voters tell us plus some Donks in Iowa. That is right…The conservatives have to get out of the that N.H> /Iowa craziness. We are being stooged.
Kill OmanaNoCare and work on senate and Govs. Those are the two holy grails of the Democrats that we can affect.
aprilnovember811 commented:
Add in that some states are passing legislation to require a legitimate birth certificate, something I’m sure our Founding Fathers would have included if they had them back then, and he won’t even be able to qualify. Let’s be real, we all know he wasn’t born here.
We need to stay away from anyone with a degree from an Ivy League school. These schools are nothing but communist indoctrination camps.
Watch for Soros, if he isn’t dead or arrested. He is going to try to promote someone who appears safe, like a Hillary Clinton type to carry on what his impostor maybe couldn’t get done. Be very aware of these people. Hillary Clinton is as much a marxist as Obama. After all, if she wasn’t she wouldn’t work for him. She can’t be trusted either. I hope her former supporters see this.
Chisum commented:
Obviously this is Sarah’s fault.
She’s the only topic the leftists will discuss. The ‘blame Bush’ meme didn’t work.
They’ll do anything to change the subject from the utter failure of their messiah.
vagabond trader commented:
We were also sure the election of Scott Brown had effectively killed Obamacare.
kate commented:
Just what are those that still support Obama smoking? How can anyone support what Obama has done to our country in two years? Yet people want to give this moron more time at the helm? God help us all.
StrangernFiction commented:
Forgive me if I’m not encouraged that Maobama has lost a few points in the polls? Call me crazy, but it seems to me that the puke in the White House (the half-black one) is the one who should be encouraged by this. Is it that hard to imagine this prick going over all the damage done to this once great country….err fundamental transformation, and just chuckling at out how many still support him.
But no worries, sleep well at night in the knowledge that if the Black Avenger continues to do his thing and strip away our liberties, we’ll get him out of office two years from now, at which time the Republicans will reinstall our freedoms.
Reaganite Republican commented:
Bet money on it
The worst fallout from his radicalism and incompetence hasn’t even hit yet,
domestically nor internationally- he’s been kind of lucky actually
Of course he thinks all his luck has been bad because he’s used to getting anything
he wants without barely lifting a finger
Fredrick Schwartz commented:
April,
for that awesome insight into the anti-intellectual brain of the flyover state conservative femal I’m willing to send you one of those nice wire reindeer to decorate the front “lawn” of your trailer..
“We need to stay away from anyone with a degree from an Ivy League school. These schools are nothing but communist indoctrination camps.”
Can you tell me where George Bush went to college?? Ever heard of Yale?
Chisum commented:
Oh look!
Sneering condescension and sweeping generalizations from the ‘intellectual’ ‘researcher’ ‘journalist’ leftist.
Imagine that! Wow, we’ve never seen that before.
StrangernFiction commented:
Fredrick Schwartz, one of those warm cuddly tolearant leftists.
Vrajavala commented:
After the s**t hits the fan with the DOJ, then Broadwy, it will go down. I know a lot of you think the “bither” issue is dead, but an”ineligibility” case went to conference at the Sipreme Court on Tuesday, with the decision to be announced on Mon 11/29.Mario Apuzzo is the lawyer and he has asked both of Obama’s appointed Justices to be recused, due to conflict of interest.
I think that the Big “O” should have watched what he said before he rebuked the Justices hiring his State of the Mess speech. “karma?”
mark commented:
Nothing is certain regarding Obama in 2012. As they used to say, California leads the nation in trends. Lets hope not. Here’s what’s happening in the formerly golden state. Liberal Dems won every single significant office on Nov 2nd, and culminated yesterday with the announced Dem victory of the Attorney General position. How could this happen? Well the majority of CA schools are Hispanic now. About 48%. Whites about 34% or so. Hispanic voters mainly vote Dem. Free gifts=free votes. Unions run the State of CA. Unions vote Dem. Free gifts=free votes. Jerry Brown, our new Gov, is the architect of the State’s government employee union system. This is his 3rd time as governor. Unemployment in CA is 12.4% and among the highest in the nation. It’s impossible to live here and not know someone who works for the State/local Govt or is retired with a full pension from the Govt. They typically vote Dem because of self-interest and self-preservation. The unions control their vote. The unions also extract extra money from each paycheck and use that money for election advertising, etc. Funding on the back of the workers. CA is in deep deep trouble. Technically bankrupt. The problem with conservatives is that we oftentimes think too logically and we fail to consider just how devious opponents may be. Conservatives try hard to solve problems (unemployment, economic issues, etc) and fail to see what’s happening. Liberals only care about controlling votes so they can remain in power. I will say that again. Liberals seek to control votes to remain in power. It does not matter what the issues are so long as you can control the vote. Here’s the proof. A Dem Congresswomen was elected over her Republican rival here in CA. The problem was that the Dem candidate was dead. She died a few months ago yet remained on the ballot on Nov 2nd. She won anyway.
Conservatives would do well to look carefully at what’s happening in CA and look at how Nov 2nd turned out here and why…instead of just celebrating victories in the other States. CA will be liberal headquarters for the next two years. The methods used to control votes here in CA will be used in the other States come 2012. Those methods didn’t pop up overnight. They have been planned for years.
Oh and regarding the “people with graduate degrees,” even many of those are being given away here in CA. Dumbed down. Free tuition and free rides to higher education equals more votes for Dems. Not only trying to control the vote, but trying to control how people think. Remember Christina Romer, Obama’s economic advisor? She teaches at Cal Berkeley. Teaches students economics that were proven to not work in real life.
Joanne commented:
People in America must be living in lah, lah land – there won’t be anything left of America in 2012 if Obama is left in power to put her in the grave and cover her up with debt and inflation. Obama is printing money now – America is on her death knell. Life is going to be hell in America if Obama isn’t kicked out of power.
StrangernFiction commented:
Joanne,
I agree with what you’ve said, but we are at the point now where life is going to be hell even if Zero IS kicked out of power.
Espresso Logic - The 6th Sense commented:
#11 November 26, 2010 at 10:28 am
Fredrick Schwartz commented:
Hello Oz Hull.
arnonerik commented:
“If the present trend continues, the country will be saved from Barack Obama in 2012.
Obama has lost ground among all groups except those with graduate degrees.”
I guess spending those extra two years in school doesn’t necessarily make you smarter. Obama still leads in two groups. He has the Black vote because they favor one of their own. (That’s racist). He also leads in those with graduate degrees because ..? they favor one of there own? (That would be elitist.)
CommieBlaster commented:
If we force Obama to prove he is eligible, he’ll not run. See why here: http://www.commieblaster.com/ineligible/
Joanne commented:
http://www.prisonplanet.com/currency-crisis-so-what-happens-if-the-dollar-and-the-euro-both-collapse.html
People need to prepare – guns, ammunition, food, shelter, and water.
Sandy commented:
The reason Obama will be a one term President is that he is incompetent, uncaring and wrong about every issue he tackles. Not to mention his antipathy toward our country. There are certain images that people will not forget. Bowing to Muslim Leaders and apologizing for the USA. Spending like there’s no tomorrow. Shutting down Gulf oil wells and putting an entire region out of work. Now groping pat downs at the airport. This is the metaphor for a man who knows nothing about this country and could care less.
We had a recession when Obama came into office which might have been cured with tax cuts for corporations to enable them to hire more workers. Instead he ruins our Healthcare System and spends us into oblivion. Now we are in the midst of a Depression even though the MSM won’t say the word.
The man has no background so there is nothing Americans can say about him which will mitigate the disaster he created. When the big donor money dries up Obama will be saying bye bye.
Chisum commented:
Sleepwalking Through History
http://pajamasmedia.com/eddriscoll/2010/11/26/sleepwalking-through-history-5/
bg commented:
++
if something like this is all that Obama befalls
US.. then we still are a truly blessed country..
==
Stuart commented:
Obama still has two more years to really screw things up. He spent months dithering on Afghanistan. He spent most of the last two years dithering on the economy. Now the economy is starting to look much worse on a world wide scale. The Euro may well collapse. AfPak looks ever less stable, and at the same time Iran, Korea, and China are becoming major headaches. The world has his number and they see nothing but incompetence and yet more dithering. These next two years are going to be the roughest in generations. In two more years Obama may well be the most reviled president in U.S. history. I wouldn’t bet the farm that the Dems even re nominate him.
Stuart commented:
As I was posting my above comment Jim Hoft posted the story of Obama being hit in the mouth during a basketball game. (see above) While Korea is burning our fearless leader is playing basketball. My point is made.
chuck in st paul commented:
If the economy does not get much worse before 2012 I think he’s going to win, but by a very slim margin in the Electoral College.
The usual suspects will always vote for this clown. The other usual suspects will make sure the zombies get to vote, the military votes get thrown out, and the college folks get to vote at least several times. Count on it.
bg commented:
++
re: #3
just a reminder..
“You are very, very dangerous people indeed. Your obsession with creating this Euro-State means that you’re happy to destroy democracy. You appear to be happy for millions and millions of people to be unemployed and to be poor. Untold millions must suffer so that your Euro – Dream can continue… We don’t want that flag, we don’t want the anthem, we don’t want this political class. We want the whole thing consigned to the dustbin of history.”
~ Nigel Paul Farage
evidently not an American, a Democrat, nor a Republican.. /s/
==
usamopatriot commented:
Why should I be surprised at these fools with so called “graduate degree’s”? I’ve only an 8th grade education and have been outsmarting those over educated idiots for years. No way that education will ever make up for a lack of common sense.
bg commented:
++
usamopatriot #30
re: [No way that education will ever
make up for a lack of common sense.]
imho that is a truism..
there is intelligent (educated), and
then there’s smart (common sense)..
“one can lead an educated person to knowledge;
but one cannot make an educated person think.”
- bg
The Death of Common Sense
[Three yards of black fabric enshroud my computer terminal. I am
mourning the passing of an old friend by the name of Common Sense.
His obituary reads as follows:
Common Sense, aka C.S., lived a long life, but died from heart failure at the brink of the millennium. No one really knows how old he was, his birth records were long ago entangled in miles and miles of bureaucratic red tape.
Known affectionately to close friends as Horse Sense and Sound Thinking, he selflessly devoted himself to a life of service in homes, schools, hospitals and offices, helping folks get jobs done without a lot of fanfare, whooping and hollering. Rules and regulations and petty, frivolous lawsuits held no power over C.S.
A most reliable sage, he was credited with cultivating the ability to know when to come in out of the rain, the discovery that the early bird gets the worm and how to take the bitter with the sweet. C.S. also developed sound financial policies (don't spend more than you earn), reliable parenting strategies (the adult is in charge, not the kid) and prudent dietary plans (offset eggs and bacon with a little fiber and orange juice).
A veteran of the Industrial Revolution, the Great Depression, the Technological Revolution and the Smoking Crusades, C.S. survived sundry cultural and educational trends including disco, the men's movement, body piercing, whole language and new math.
C.S.'s health began declining in the late 1960s when he became infected with the If-It-Feels-Good, Do-It virus. In the following decades his waning strength proved no match for the ravages of overbearing federal and state rules and regulations and an oppressive tax code. C.S. was sapped of strength and the will to live as the Ten Commandments became contraband, criminals received better treatment than victims and judges stuck their noses in everything from Boy Scouts to professional baseball and golf. His deterioration accelerated as schools implemented zero-tolerance policies. Reports of 6-year-old boys charged with sexual harassment for kissing classmates, a teen suspended for taking a swig of Scope mouthwash after lunch, girls suspended for possessing Midol and an honor student expelled for having a table knife in her school lunch were more than his heart could endure.
As the end neared, doctors say C.S. drifted in and out of logic but was kept informed of developments regarding regulations on low-flow toilets and mandatory air bags. Finally, upon hearing about a government plan to ban inhalers from 14 million asthmatics due to a trace of a pollutant that may be harmful to the environment, C.S. breathed his last. Services will be at Whispering Pines Cemetery. C.S. was preceded in death by his wife, Discretion; one daughter, Responsibility; and one son, Reason. He is survived by two step-brothers, Half-Wit and Dim-Wit.
Memorial Contributions may be sent
to the Institute for Rational Thought.
Farewell, Common Sense. May you rest in peace.]
~ Lori Borgman
==